Market Pulse50Neutral

Fastly, Inc.Opportunity Rank #181(FSLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$24.22

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$24.22
Price
$24.45
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 1%MOS: $19.56

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is estimated at $24.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.22, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.43% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is estimated at $24.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $24.22, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.43% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.28%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$24.45
0.95% upside
20% margin of safety: $19.56
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.19%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
0.9% discount to price
52
FCF Yield
3.5% trailing FCF yield
37
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.2% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
0.0x net debt to FCF
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
48.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (7th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 64 (55 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
41 news sentiment+1.1
9 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
3 earnings beat+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Fastly, Inc. is currently trading close to its fair value with a modest upside potential of approximately 4.8%, but its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating limited immediate growth prospects. The company's fundamentals are neutral with a stable but broken narrative, suggesting patience is warranted before considering investment.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.32%5 Year CAGR: 60.76%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$128$123$54$33$11$12$18-$11$3-$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Fastly, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Fastly, Inc.Technology

Fastly, Inc. operates an edge cloud platform for processing, serving, and securing its customer's applications in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The edge cloud is a category of Infrastructure as a Service that enables developers to build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the internet. It is a programmable platform designed for web and application delivery. The company offers Compute@Edge; developer hub that includes solution library patterns and recipes, API and language references, change logs, and Fastly Fiddle solutions; device detection and geolocation, edge dictionaries, edge access control lists, and edge authentication services; full site delivery services, such as dynamic site acceleration, origin shield, instant purge, surrogate keys, real-time logging and stats, cloud optimizer, programmatic control, edge databases, content compression, reliability, and modern protocols and performance services; and streaming solutions and services, including live streaming, media shield, and origin connect. It also provides edge security solutions, such as DDoS protection and cloud, edge web application firewall (WAF), transport layer security (TLS), platform TLS, and compliance services; unified web application and API protection solutions that includes runtime self-application protection, advanced rate limiting, API and ATO protection, account takeover protection, bot protection, and next generation WAF. In addition, the company offers edge applications, such as load balancers and image optimizers; video on demand; and managed edge delivery services. It serves customers operating in digital publishing, media and entertainment, technology, online retail, travel and hospitality, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as SkyCache, Inc. and changed its name to Fastly, Inc. in May 2012. Fastly, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.