Market Pulse59Neutral

Fastly, Inc.Opportunity Rank #97(FSLY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$19.50

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$19.50
Price
$30.22
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 55%MOS: $24.18

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+6 vs previous

Trend Score

56/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is estimated at $30.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $19.50, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Fastly, Inc. (FSLY) is estimated at $30.22 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $19.50, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 14.38% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$30.22
54.97% upside
20% margin of safety: $24.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: 14.38%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-2.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
55.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
5.0% trailing FCF yield
76
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -2.1% vs WACC 8.0% (-0.3x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
54.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+6 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (91st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 59 (49 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
2 upgrade headlines+0.6
Earnings beat+0.6
35 news sentiment+0.2
Downgrade headlines-0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

56/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+132.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+145.3%
Price vs 21 EMA-20.5%
Price vs 21 EMA0 · -20.5%
Price vs 50 EMA4 · -15.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA90 · +6.9%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +132.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +145.3%
Distance from 52W High22 · -38.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Fastly, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 61.1% above its current price, supported by a strong and improving narrative score and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows promising free cash flow growth and valuation upside.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 28.87%5 Year CAGR: 66.66%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$153$123$54$33$11$12$18-$11$3-$13

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Fastly, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Fastly, Inc.Technology

Fastly, Inc. operates an edge cloud platform for processing, serving, and securing its customer's applications in the United States, the Asia Pacific, Europe, and internationally. The edge cloud is a category of Infrastructure as a Service that enables developers to build, secure, and deliver digital experiences at the edge of the internet. It is a programmable platform designed for web and application delivery. The company offers Compute@Edge; developer hub that includes solution library patterns and recipes, API and language references, change logs, and Fastly Fiddle solutions; device detection and geolocation, edge dictionaries, edge access control lists, and edge authentication services; full site delivery services, such as dynamic site acceleration, origin shield, instant purge, surrogate keys, real-time logging and stats, cloud optimizer, programmatic control, edge databases, content compression, reliability, and modern protocols and performance services; and streaming solutions and services, including live streaming, media shield, and origin connect. It also provides edge security solutions, such as DDoS protection and cloud, edge web application firewall (WAF), transport layer security (TLS), platform TLS, and compliance services; unified web application and API protection solutions that includes runtime self-application protection, advanced rate limiting, API and ATO protection, account takeover protection, bot protection, and next generation WAF. In addition, the company offers edge applications, such as load balancers and image optimizers; video on demand; and managed edge delivery services. It serves customers operating in digital publishing, media and entertainment, technology, online retail, travel and hospitality, and financial services industries. The company was formerly known as SkyCache, Inc. and changed its name to Fastly, Inc. in May 2012. Fastly, Inc. was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.