Market Pulse59Neutral

Flutter Entertainment plcOpportunity Rank #221(FLUT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$101.20

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$101.20
Price
$156.45
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 55%MOS: $125.16

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

13/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) is estimated at $156.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $101.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Flutter Entertainment plc (FLUT) is estimated at $156.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $101.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.10% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.75%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$156.45
▲ 54.59% upside
20% margin of safety: $125.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.10%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
54.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.6% vs WACC 10.0% (-0.1x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
4.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
-2 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (77th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 82 (53 News · 29 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
42 news sentiment+0.4
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
2 analyst downgrades-0.0
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
27 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

13/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-67.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-62.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-40.5%
Price vs 21 EMA25 · -4.3%
Price vs 50 EMA8 · -11.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA6 · -7.7%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -40.5%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -62.1%
Distance from 52W High0 · -67.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Flutter Entertainment plc is currently trading at a significant discount with a fair value estimate 135% above its current price, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.1%. However, the company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating operational challenges despite a strong narrative score.
Key Risk
The negative spread between ROIC and WACC (-10.62%) poses a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.10%5 Year CAGR: 14.26%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,776$1,289$2,263$1,539$1,592$912$1,650$721

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Flutter Entertainment plc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Flutter Entertainment plcConsumer Cyclical

Flutter Entertainment plc operates as a sports betting and gaming company in the United Kingdom, Ireland, Australia, the United States, and internationally. The company operates through four segments: UK & Ireland, Australia, International, and US. It offers sportsbooks and exchange sports betting products, daily fantasy sports products, and pari-mutuel betting products; fixed odds games betting products; online games and casinos; lottery; peer-to-peer games, including online bingo, rummy, and poker; and business-to-business services. In addition, the company operates HRTV, a horseracing television network. Further, it provides sports betting and gaming services through paddypower.com, betfair.com, sportsbet.com.au, tvg.com, us.betfair.com, fanduel.com, adjarabet.com, pokerstars.com, Skybet.com, tombola.com, and sisal.com websites under the FanDuel, Sky Betting & Gaming, Sportsbet, PokerStars, Paddy Power, Sisal, tombola, Betfair, FOX Bet, TVG, Stardust, Junglee Games, and Adjarabet brands, as well as live poker tours and events. The company was formerly known as Paddy Power Betfair plc and changed its name to Flutter Entertainment plc in 2019. The company was incorporated in 1958 and is headquartered in Dublin, Ireland.