Market Pulse59Neutral

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Opportunity Rank #142(FIX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$1,941.99

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,941.99
Price
$901.12
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 54%MOS: $720.90

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

97/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $901.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,941.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $901.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,941.99, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$901.12
▼ -53.60% downside
20% margin of safety: $720.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.74%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
53.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.8% trailing FCF yield
21
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.7% vs WACC 10.0% (1.8x)
89
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
44.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 104 (101 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
65 news sentiment+2.8
3 earnings beat+0.4
30 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Downgrade headlines+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1

Trend Details

97/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+88.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+51.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+22.1%
Price vs 21 EMA91 · +9.9%
Price vs 50 EMA98 · +22.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA97 · +11.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +51.9%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +88.8%
Distance from 52W High94 · -2.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a supportive narrative score, indicating operational strength. However, the current market price is substantially above the estimated fair value, suggesting limited upside at present.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the significant overvaluation, with the stock price nearly 52% above its estimated fair value, which could lead to downside pressure.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remaining above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.92%5 Year CAGR: 57.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,943$1,341$960$734$350$202$311$174$174$150$114$119$62$56$42$38$39$64$97$95$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Industrials

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. The company offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. It also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of MEP systems in existing buildings. In addition, the company provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. It serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional MEP markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.