Market Pulse50Neutral

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Opportunity Rank #196(FIX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$1,408.25

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,408.25
Price
$639.14
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 55%MOS: $511.31

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $639.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,408.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $639.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,408.25, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.72% long-term growth rate and a 10.81% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$639.14
-54.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $511.31
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
54.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
18
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.1% vs WACC 10.0% (1.5x)
76
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
34.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 96 (94 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
62 news sentiment+2.3
30 regulatory scrutiny+1.1
Upgrade headlines+0.4
Earnings beat+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 19h ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. shows a strong ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 5.1 percentage points and has an improving narrative score, indicating constructive fundamentals. However, the current market price is significantly above the estimated fair value by over 53%, suggesting caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a level closer to its fair value, limiting upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.72%5 Year CAGR: 45.96%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,341$1,341$960$734$350$202$311$174$174$150$114$119$62$56$42$38$39$64$97$95$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Industrials

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. It operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. The company offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. It also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of MEP systems in existing buildings. In addition, the company provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. It serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional MEP markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.