Market Pulse46Neutral

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Opportunity Rank #214(FIX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$1,756.09

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,756.09
Price
$917.19
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 48%MOS: $733.75

Fundamental Score

65/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

55/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $917.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,756.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.09% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $917.19 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,756.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.09% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$917.19
▼ -47.77% downside
20% margin of safety: $733.75
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.92%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.86%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.1% trailing FCF yield
29
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.9% vs WACC 10.0% (1.8x)
89
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
44.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
-1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (13th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 58 (55 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
48 news sentiment+1.4
Upgrade headlines+0.0
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
2 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

55/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+60.2%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.4%
Distance from 52-Week High-15.0%
Price vs 21 EMA24 · -4.4%
Price vs 50 EMA34 · -3.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA61 · +1.3%
3M RS vs SPY52 · +0.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +60.2%
Distance from 52W High70 · -15.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. exhibits strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a supportive narrative score, indicating operational strength despite the current market price being substantially above estimated fair value. The company's free cash flow growth and active buybacks further underscore its financial health.
Key Risk
The key risk is the significant overvaluation, with the current price nearly 45% above the estimated fair value, which may lead to downside pressure if fundamentals or market sentiment deteriorate.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend or confidence levels.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.92%5 Year CAGR: 57.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,943$1,341$960$734$350$202$311$174$174$150$114$119$62$56$42$38$39$64$97$95$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Industrials

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides mechanical and electrical installation, renovation, maintenance, repair, and replacement services for the mechanical and electrical services industry in the United States. The company operates through two segments: Mechanical and Electrical. It offers heating, ventilation, and air conditioning systems, as well as plumbing, electrical, piping and controls, off-site construction, monitoring, and fire protection. The company is also involved in the design, engineering, integration, installation, and start-up of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems in new buildings; and renovation, expansion, maintenance, monitoring, repair, and replacement of systems in existing buildings. In addition, it provides remote monitoring of power usage, temperature, pressure, humidity and air flow for MEP and other building systems. The company serves building owners and developers, general contractors, architects, consulting engineers, and property managers in the commercial, industrial, and institutional markets. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.