Market Pulse44Neutral

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Opportunity Rank #145(FIX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$2,068.09

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$2,068.09
Price
$913.78
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 56%MOS: $731.02

Fundamental Score

63/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

73/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

94/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $913.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $2,068.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.12% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Comfort Systems USA, Inc. (FIX) is estimated at $913.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $2,068.09, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.92% long-term growth rate and an 11.12% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$913.78
-55.82% downside
20% margin of safety: $731.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.92%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.86%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

63/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
55.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.7% trailing FCF yield
17
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.9% vs WACC 10.0% (1.8x)
89
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
44.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

73/100
Strong
-1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (35th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 71 (68 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
55 news sentiment+1.6
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

94/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+123.0%
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+37.5%
Price vs 21 EMA90 · +9.1%
Price vs 50 EMA94 · +14.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA84 · +5.1%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +37.5%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +123.0%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Comfort Systems USA, Inc. exhibits strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and a supportive narrative score, indicating operational strength despite the current market price being substantially above estimated fair value. The company's free cash flow growth and active buybacks further underscore its financial health.
Key Risk
The key risk is the significant overvaluation, with the current price nearly 45% above the estimated fair value, which may lead to downside pressure if fundamentals or market sentiment deteriorate.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend or confidence levels.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.92%5 Year CAGR: 57.19%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,943$1,341$960$734$350$202$311$174$174$150$114$119$62$56$42$38$39$64$97$95$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Comfort Systems USA, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Comfort Systems USA, Inc.Industrials

Comfort Systems USA, Inc., along with its various operating units, delivers a comprehensive spectrum of mechanical and electrical services throughout the United States. These offerings include the installation, modernization, upkeep, repair, and systematic replacement of critical building systems. The company's operations are distinctly segmented into Mechanical and Electrical divisions. Its extensive service portfolio encompasses heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) solutions, plumbing infrastructure, electrical systems, specialized piping and controls, off-site construction techniques, continuous monitoring services, and fire protection systems. For new construction projects, the firm handles the entire process from initial design and engineering to the integration, installation, and commissioning of mechanical, electrical, and plumbing (MEP) and related systems. Conversely, for existing structures, it undertakes renovations, expansions, routine maintenance, performance monitoring, corrective repairs, and component replacements for MEP infrastructure. Furthermore, a specialized offering includes the remote surveillance of crucial building system metrics such as power consumption, temperature, pressure, humidity levels, and air flow for both MEP and other vital facility components. Comfort Systems USA, Inc. serves a diverse clientele, including property owners, developers, general contractors, architectural firms, engineering consultants, and facility managers across the commercial, industrial, and institutional segments of the MEP market. Established in 1917, the company maintains its corporate headquarters in Houston, Texas.