Market Pulse59Neutral

Figma, Inc.Opportunity Rank #297(FIG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$20.56

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$20.56
Price
$3.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 82%MOS: $2.89

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Figma, Inc. (FIG) is estimated at $3.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $20.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -46.99% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Figma, Inc. (FIG) is estimated at $3.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $20.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -46.99% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.69%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$3.61
▼ -82.44% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.89
Years: 10Growth Rate: -46.99%
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Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.6% trailing FCF yield
14
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (45th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 46 (42 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
33 news sentiment-0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08195 daily bars used
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Figma, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 84% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a net cash balance sheet, the company's financial performance and growth prospects remain bearish.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital may not improve relative to its weighted average cost of capital, prolonging value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -46.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023
$258$255-$54$1,054

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Figma, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Figma, Inc.Technology

Figma, Inc. develops a browser-based tool for designing user interfaces that helps design and development teams build various products. The company offers Figma Design, a collaborative design tool for teams that explore ideas and gather feedback, build realistic prototypes, and streamline product development with design systems; Dev Mode to inspect designs and translate them into code without changing the design file; FigJam to define ideas, align on decisions, and move work forward—all in one place; and Figma Slides, a presentation tool built for designers and their teams. It also provides Figma Draw to create expressive designs with illustration tools; Figma Buzz that publishes brand templates to create social media assets, display ads, one-pagers, and others; Figma Sites to design, prototype, and publish; and Figma Make, an AI tool to design and prompt way to a functional prototype. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.