Market Pulse50Neutral

Figma, Inc.Opportunity Rank #290(FIG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$26.17

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$26.17
Price
$3.61
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 86%MOS: $2.89

Fundamental Score

26/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Figma, Inc. (FIG) is estimated at $3.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $26.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -46.99% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.70%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Figma, Inc. (FIG) is estimated at $3.61 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $26.17, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -46.99% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.70%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$3.61
▼ -86.21% downside
20% margin of safety: $2.89
Years: 10Growth Rate: -46.99%
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Fundamental Details

26/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
86.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.0% trailing FCF yield
1
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC vs WACC unavailable
50
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 109 (101 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
86 news sentiment+0.6
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
3 earnings beat+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Figma, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 87.7% above the estimated fair value of $3.21, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that fail to exceed the cost of capital. Despite a net cash position, the company's deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score suggest poor investment prospects.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating sustained value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained periods.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -46.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023
$258$255-$54$1,054

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Figma, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Figma, Inc.Technology

Figma, Inc. develops a browser-based tool for designing user interfaces that helps design and development teams build various products. The company offers Figma Design, a collaborative design tool for teams that explore ideas and gather feedback, build realistic prototypes, and streamline product development with design systems; Dev Mode to inspect designs and translate them into code without changing the design file; FigJam to define ideas, align on decisions, and move work forward—all in one place; and Figma Slides, a presentation tool built for designers and their teams. It also provides Figma Draw to create expressive designs with illustration tools; Figma Buzz that publishes brand templates to create social media assets, display ads, one-pagers, and others; Figma Sites to design, prototype, and publish; and Figma Make, an AI tool to design and prompt way to a functional prototype. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.