Market Pulse50Neutral

Fair Isaac CorporationOpportunity Rank #214(FICO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,093.62

Last updated: Mar 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,093.62
Price
$446.85
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 59%MOS: $357.48

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

44/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is estimated at $446.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,093.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is estimated at $446.85 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,093.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$446.85
▼ -59.14% downside
20% margin of safety: $357.48
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.45%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
15.87%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
59.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.0% trailing FCF yield
25
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 15.9% vs WACC 7.0% (2.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
3.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

44/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (41st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 75 (70 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 regulatory scrutiny-0.8
41 news sentiment+0.5
Promotions/discounting-0.2
Upgrade headlines-0.1
3 earnings beat+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) shows strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital and constructive financial metrics, but its current price is substantially above the estimated fair value. Despite solid free cash flow growth and buybacks, the deteriorating narrative score suggests caution.
Key Risk
The key risk is the significant overvaluation, with the current price trading over 60% above estimated fair value, which may lead to downside pressure if fundamentals or market sentiment worsen.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful improvement or further deterioration.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.45%5 Year CAGR: 12.65%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$783$788$659$473$515$431$387$284$254$245$207$158$188$160$155$150$123$166$182$202$230

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Fair Isaac Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Fair Isaac CorporationTechnology

Fair Isaac Corporation develops analytic, software, and data management products and services that enable businesses to automate, enhance, and connect decisions in the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific. It operates through two segments, Scores and Software. The Software segment offers pre-configured decision management solution designed for various business problems or processes, such as marketing, account origination, customer management, customer engagement, fraud detection, financial crimes compliance, collection, and marketing, as well as associated professional services. This segment also provides FICO Platform, a modular software offering designed to support advanced analytic and decision use cases, as well as stand-alone analytic and decisioning software that can be configured by customers to address a wide range of business use cases. The Scores segment provides business-to-business scoring solutions and services for consumers that give clients access to analytics to be integrated into their transaction streams and decision-making processes, as well as business-to-consumer scoring solutions comprising myFICO.com subscription offerings. Fair Isaac Corporation markets its products and services primarily through its direct sales organization and indirect channels, as well as online. The company was formerly known as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc. and changed its name to Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992. Fair Isaac Corporation was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Bozeman, Montana.