Market Pulse44Neutral

Fair Isaac CorporationOpportunity Rank #284(FICO) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$1,090.85

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$1,090.85
Price
$554.88
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 49%MOS: $443.90

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

56/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is estimated at $554.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,090.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.60% long-term growth rate and a 9.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) is estimated at $554.88 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $1,090.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.60% long-term growth rate and a 9.20% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$554.88
-49.13% downside
20% margin of safety: $443.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.60%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
49.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.6% trailing FCF yield
41
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.8% vs WACC 7.0% (2.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
3.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

56/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 59 (48 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
44 news sentiment+0.5
Promotions/discounting+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny-0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-48.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-43.4%
Price vs 21 EMA16 · -6.5%
Price vs 50 EMA21 · -6.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA50 · +0.0%
3M RS vs SPY5 · -18.0%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -48.7%
Distance from 52W High13 · -43.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Fair Isaac Corporation (FICO) currently trades at a significant premium with its price 54.5% above estimated fair value despite strong fundamentals including a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 10.8 percentage points. The company's fundamentals are constructive with a neutral score and stable narrative trend, supported by strong free cash flow growth and buybacks.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may correct downward to align with the fair value estimate, impacting returns given the current high premium.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor narrative trends for any meaningful shifts in the fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.60%5 Year CAGR: 16.40%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$922$788$659$473$515$431$387$284$254$245$207$158$188$160$155$150$123$166$182$202$230

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Fair Isaac Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Fair Isaac CorporationTechnology

Fair Isaac Corporation, also known as FICO, delivers advanced analytics, software solutions, and data management services designed to help businesses optimize, automate, and interconnect their crucial decision-making processes. These offerings reach clients across the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, Africa, and the Asia Pacific region. The company operates through two main divisions: Software and Scores. The Software segment provides pre-configured decision management solutions catering to a variety of business challenges and operations, including marketing strategy, account creation, customer relations, engagement, fraud detection, financial crime compliance, and debt collection, alongside related professional services. Key among its offerings is the FICO Platform, a modular software suite built to support sophisticated analytical and decision-making applications. This segment also supplies stand-alone analytical and decisioning software that customers can customize for a broad spectrum of business needs. Conversely, the Scores segment offers both business-to-business (B2B) and business-to-consumer (B2C) solutions. Its B2B scoring services empower corporate clients with analytics that can be integrated directly into their transaction flows and decision frameworks. For individual consumers, the segment provides B2C scoring via offerings such as myFICO.com subscriptions. FICO markets its diverse product and service portfolio primarily through its dedicated direct sales force, various indirect distribution channels, and its online presence. Established in 1956 as Fair Isaac & Company, Inc., the company officially adopted the name Fair Isaac Corporation in July 1992 and maintains its headquarters in Bozeman, Montana.