Market Pulse50Neutral

Expedia Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #2(EXPE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$236.65

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$236.65
Price
$564.43
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 139%MOS: $451.54

Fundamental Score

98/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is estimated at $564.43 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $236.65, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.34% long-term growth rate and a 9.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is estimated at $564.43 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $236.65, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.34% long-term growth rate and a 9.23% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$564.43
▲ 138.51% upside
20% margin of safety: $451.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.34%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
59.8%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

98/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
138.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 59.8% vs WACC 11.0% (5.4x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
489.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (76th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 99 (77 News · 22 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
50 news sentiment+1.1
18 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
4 earnings beat+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0
2 layoffs-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 10h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Expedia Group, Inc. is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate 142.7% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 98 and a robust ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 48.8 points. The improving narrative score further reinforces the positive outlook for the company.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the company's ROIC falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation justification.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.34%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.85%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,065$4,650$3,841$3,536$4,102$4,421-$3,037$3,927$2,853$2,509$2,314$2,155$1,695$1,072$1,473$1,110$933$768$681$799$710

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Expedia Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Expedia Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as an online travel company in the United States and internationally. The company operates through Retail, B2B, and trivago segments. Its brand portfolio include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel brand with localized websites; Hotels.com for marketing and distributing lodging accommodations; Vrbo, an online marketplace for the alternative accommodations; Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets travel websites; ebookers, an online EMEA travel agent for travelers an array of travel options; Hotwire, which offers travel booking services; CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a luxury travel specialist; and Expedia Cruise, a provider of advice for travelers booking cruises. The company's brand portfolio also comprise Expedia Partner Solutions, a business-to-business brand that provides travel and non-travel vertical, which includes corporate travel management, airlines, travel agents, online retailers and financial institutions; and Egencia that provides corporate travel management services. In addition, its brand portfolio consists of Trivago, a hotel metasearch website, which send referrals to online travel companies and travel service providers from hotel metasearch websites; and Expedia Group Media solutions. Further, the company provides online travel services through its Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz brands; loyalty programs; hotel accommodations and alternative accommodations; and advertising and media services. It serves leisure and corporate travelers. The company was formerly known as Expedia, Inc. and changed its name to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018. Expedia Group, Inc. was founded in 1996 and is headquartered in Seattle, Washington.