Market Pulse44Neutral

Expedia Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #54(EXPE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$238.02

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$238.02
Price
$730.50
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 207%MOS: $584.40

Fundamental Score

98/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

40/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is estimated at $730.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $238.02, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Expedia Group, Inc. (EXPE) is estimated at $730.50 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $238.02, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.50% long-term growth rate and a 9.54% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$730.50
206.91% upside
20% margin of safety: $584.40
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.50%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
87.27%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

98/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
206.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 87.3% vs WACC 11.0% (7.9x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
504.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 52m ago
Sources: 66 (50 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
40 news sentiment+0.2
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

40/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.7%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.6%
Price vs 21 EMA+2.8%
Price vs 21 EMA67 · +2.8%
Price vs 50 EMA61 · +2.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA46 · -0.5%
3M RS vs SPY9 · -13.6%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -26.7%
Distance from 52W High58 · -21.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Expedia Group, Inc. is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate 241% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 98 and a robust ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 76.3 points. The company also demonstrates a healthy free cash flow yield of 20.1%, indicating strong financial performance and growth potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is the potential decline in ROIC below the cost of capital, which could undermine the company's profitability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.50%5 Year CAGR: 2.62%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,032$4,650$3,841$3,536$4,102$4,421-$3,037$3,927$2,853$2,509$2,314$2,155$1,695$1,072$1,473$1,110$933$768$681$799$710

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Expedia Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Expedia Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Expedia Group, Inc. operates as a leading online travel company, serving customers both within the United States and across international markets. The enterprise structures its extensive operations into three primary divisions: Retail, Business-to-Business (B2B), and Trivago. Its comprehensive brand portfolio caters to diverse travel needs. Key retail brands include Brand Expedia, a full-service online travel platform offering localized websites; Hotels.com, specializing in the marketing and distribution of lodging accommodations; and Vrbo, an online marketplace dedicated to alternative accommodation options. Other prominent travel booking websites under its umbrella are Orbitz, Travelocity, and CheapTickets. For the EMEA region, ebookers functions as an online travel agent, presenting travelers with a broad spectrum of choices, while Hotwire provides various travel booking services. Complementing these are CarRentals.com, an online car rental booking service; Classic Vacations, a specialist in luxury travel experiences; and Expedia Cruise, which guides travelers in booking cruises. In the B2B sphere, Expedia Partner Solutions offers travel and non-travel vertical services to a wide array of clients, including corporate travel management firms, airlines, travel agents, online retailers, and financial institutions. Egencia, another key brand, focuses specifically on delivering corporate travel management services. Further extending its reach, the portfolio also features Trivago, a hotel metasearch website that refers users to online travel companies and service providers, alongside Expedia Group Media Solutions. The company also provides online travel services through several regional brands like Wotif.com, lastminute.com.au, travel.com.au, Wotif.co.nz, and lastminute.co.nz. Beyond brand-specific offerings, Expedia Group, Inc. delivers loyalty programs, a wide array of hotel and alternative accommodation choices, and advertising and media services. Serving both individual leisure travelers and corporate clients, the company was initially founded as Expedia, Inc. in 1996. It subsequently rebranded to Expedia Group, Inc. in March 2018, and its headquarters are located in Seattle, Washington.