Market Pulse57Neutral

EOG Resources, Inc.Opportunity Rank #53(EOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$138.01

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$138.01
Price
$546.96
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 296%MOS: $437.57

Fundamental Score

79/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

58/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is estimated at $546.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.01, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.21% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is estimated at $546.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $138.01, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.21% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.24%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$546.96
▲ 296.32% upside
20% margin of safety: $437.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.21%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.3%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

79/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
296.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
23.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 86%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 39 (25 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 news sentiment+0.3
2 upgrade headlines+0.3
Earnings beat+0.2
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

58/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+23.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-7.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.8%
Price vs 21 EMA65 · +2.5%
Price vs 50 EMA62 · +2.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
3M RS vs SPY19 · -8.8%
6M RS vs SPY93 · +23.2%
Distance from 52W High84 · -7.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
EOG Resources, Inc. is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate 291% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 23%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.21%5 Year CAGR: 6.55%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$17,364$16,159$18,515$17,525$16,093$12,641$8,472$14,586$13,845$8,390$4,942$8,608$16,896$14,390$12,592$11,529$8,290$6,425$9,829$6,572$5,398

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EOG Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EOG Resources, Inc.Energy

EOG Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, natural gas liquids, and natural gas in producing basins in the United States, the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago, and internationally. The company also offers crude oil and condensate, and gathering, processing and marketing. The company was formerly known as Enron Oil & Gas Company. EOG Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.