Market Pulse50Neutral

EOG Resources, Inc.Opportunity Rank #47(EOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$139.68

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$139.68
Price
$513.23
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 267%MOS: $410.58

Fundamental Score

78/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

57/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is estimated at $513.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $139.68, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.16% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.23%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is estimated at $513.23 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $139.68, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.16% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.23%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$513.23
▲ 267.43% upside
20% margin of safety: $410.58
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.16%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.22%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

78/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
267.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
21.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.2% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
26
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
94
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
14.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
96
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

57/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 52m ago
Sources: 66 (51 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
23 news sentiment+0.7
24 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
Downgrade headlines+0.3
3 earnings beat+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 10h ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
EOG Resources, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 272% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 21.8%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's solid buyback program and robust free cash flow growth underpin a bullish investment case.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital which may pressure valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.16%5 Year CAGR: 5.51%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,526$16,159$18,515$17,525$16,093$12,641$8,472$14,586$13,845$8,390$4,942$8,608$16,896$14,390$12,592$11,529$8,290$6,425$9,829$6,572$5,398

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EOG Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EOG Resources, Inc.Energy

EOG Resources, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, explores for, develops, produces, and markets crude oil, and natural gas and natural gas liquids. Its principal producing areas are in New Mexico and Texas in the United States; and the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. As of December 31, 2021, it had total estimated net proved reserves of 3,747 million barrels of oil equivalent, including 1,548 million barrels (MMBbl) of crude oil and condensate reserves; 829 MMBbl of natural gas liquid reserves; and 8,222 billion cubic feet of natural gas reserves. The company was formerly known as Enron Oil & Gas Company. EOG Resources, Inc. was incorporated in 1985 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.