Market Pulse44Neutral

EOG Resources, Inc.Opportunity Rank #65(EOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$132.83

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$132.83
Price
$546.96
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 312%MOS: $437.57

Fundamental Score

79/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

45/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is estimated at $546.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $132.83, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.21% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.23%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EOG Resources, Inc. (EOG) is estimated at $546.96 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $132.83, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.21% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.23%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$546.96
▲ 311.77% upside
20% margin of safety: $437.57
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.21%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.3%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

79/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
311.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
24.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
95
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (23rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 63 (48 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
39 news sentiment+0.4
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
3 earnings beat+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

45/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-19.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-11.4%
Price vs 21 EMA37 · -2.1%
Price vs 50 EMA40 · -1.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
3M RS vs SPY4 · -19.0%
6M RS vs SPY85 · +15.9%
Distance from 52W High77 · -11.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 62%
Thesis
EOG Resources, Inc. is significantly undervalued with a fair value estimate 291% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high free cash flow yield of 23%. Despite trailing its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for substantial upside.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure returns and valuation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.21%5 Year CAGR: 6.55%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$17,364$16,159$18,515$17,525$16,093$12,641$8,472$14,586$13,845$8,390$4,942$8,608$16,896$14,390$12,592$11,529$8,290$6,425$9,829$6,572$5,398

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EOG Resources, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EOG Resources, Inc.Energy

EOG Resources, Inc., alongside its subsidiaries, is actively involved in the exploration, development, production, and commercialization of crude oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids. The company's primary operational hubs for production are located in New Mexico and Texas within the United States, as well as the Republic of Trinidad and Tobago. As of December 31, 2021, its total estimated net proved reserves amounted to 3,747 million barrels of oil equivalent. This figure comprised 1,548 million barrels of crude oil and condensate, 829 million barrels of natural gas liquids, and 8,222 billion cubic feet of natural gas. Formerly known as Enron Oil & Gas Company, EOG Resources, Inc. was established in 1985 and has its corporate headquarters in Houston, Texas.