Market Pulse50Neutral

EMCOR Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #185(EME) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$744.66

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$744.66
Price
$583.13
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 22%MOS: $466.50

Fundamental Score

54/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-4 vs previous

The intrinsic value of EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) is estimated at $583.13 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $744.66, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.99% long-term growth rate and a 9.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of EMCOR Group, Inc. (EME) is estimated at $583.13 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $744.66, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.99% long-term growth rate and a 9.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$583.13
-21.69% downside
20% margin of safety: $466.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.99%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

54/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
21.7% premium to price
14
FCF Yield
4.2% trailing FCF yield
56
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.3% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
56
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
10.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
78
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (41st pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 40m ago
Sources: 100 (95 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
68 news sentiment+1.3
25 regulatory scrutiny-0.3
2 earnings beat-0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 10h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 50%
Thesis
EMCOR Group, Inc. is currently overvalued with its price approximately 20.5% above the estimated fair value despite a supportive narrative score and a strong balance sheet position. The company maintains a return on invested capital (ROIC) slightly above its cost of capital, indicating modest operational efficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price may not correct to a sufficient discount relative to fair value, limiting upside potential.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remaining above the cost of capital over the coming quarters.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.99%5 Year CAGR: 31.85%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,415$1,415$1,483$978$547$355$854$404$314$401$304$302$285$186$222$179$88$383$373$281$229

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates EMCOR Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

EMCOR Group, Inc.Industrials

EMCOR Group, Inc. provides electrical and mechanical construction, and facilities services primarily in the United States and the United Kingdom. It offers design, integration, installation, starts-up, operation, and maintenance services related to electrical power transmission, distribution, and generation systems; energy solutions; premises electrical and lighting systems; process instrumentation in the refining, chemical processing, and food processing industries; low-voltage systems, such as fire alarm, security, and process control systems; voice and data communications systems; roadway and transit lighting, signaling, and fiber optic lines; heating, ventilation, air conditioning, refrigeration, and geothermal solutions; clean-room process ventilation systems; fire protection and suppression systems; plumbing, process, and high-purity piping systems; controls and filtration systems; water and wastewater treatment systems; central plant heating and cooling systems; crane and rigging services; millwright services; and steel fabrication, erection, and welding services. The company also provides building services that cover commercial and government site-based operations and maintenance; facility management, maintenance, and services; outage services to utilities and industrial plants; military base operations support services; mobile mechanical maintenance and services; services for indoor air quality; floor care and janitorial services; landscaping, lot sweeping, and snow removal services; vendor management and call center services; installation and support for building systems; program development, management, and maintenance for energy systems; technical consulting and diagnostic services; infrastructure and building projects; small modification and retrofit projects; and other building services. It offers industrial services to oil, gas, and petrochemical industries. EMCOR Group, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in Norwalk, Connecticut.