Market Pulse46Neutral

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Opportunity Rank #135(ELF) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$76.75

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$76.75
Price
$78.09
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 2%MOS: $62.47

Fundamental Score

54/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

-4 vs previous

Trend Score

69/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is estimated at $78.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.79% long-term growth rate and an 11.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is estimated at $78.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $76.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.79% long-term growth rate and an 11.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$78.09
▲ 1.75% upside
20% margin of safety: $62.47
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.19%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

54/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1.7% discount to price
53
FCF Yield
5.2% trailing FCF yield
80
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
20
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
45.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
-4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 86 (72 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
62 news sentiment+1.2
4 earnings beat+0.2
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Margin pressure+0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

69/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+17.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-47.7%
Price vs 21 EMA+10.9%
Price vs 21 EMA93 · +10.9%
Price vs 50 EMA96 · +17.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA86 · +5.5%
3M RS vs SPY82 · +9.0%
6M RS vs SPY14 · -16.0%
Distance from 52W High5 · -47.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 43.1% above the current price and exhibits strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.8%. The company shows constructive financial metrics and a stable, strong narrative trend supporting a bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly trails its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 12.79%5 Year CAGR: 45.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020182017201620152014
$235$152$80$104$24$36$54$64$20$11$35-$6

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Consumer Defensive

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., a beauty company, provides cosmetics and skin care products worldwide. The company offers eye, lip, face, paw, and skin care products. It offers products under the e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, Naturium, and Keys Soulcare brand names. The company sells its products through national and international retailer and direct-to-consumer through its e-commerce channel. e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. was formerly known as J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc. and changed its name to e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. in April 2016. The company was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Oakland, California.