Market Pulse44Neutral

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Opportunity Rank #77(ELF) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$63.18

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$63.18
Price
$80.43
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 27%MOS: $64.34

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

38/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is estimated at $80.43 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $63.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.79% long-term growth rate and a 10.82% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. (ELF) is estimated at $80.43 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $63.18, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 12.79% long-term growth rate and a 10.82% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$80.43
▲ 27.30% upside
20% margin of safety: $64.34
Years: 10Growth Rate: 12.79%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.19%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
27.3% discount to price
96
FCF Yield
6.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
20
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
45.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (84th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 87 (70 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
61 news sentiment+1.1
3 earnings beat+0.0
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

38/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-56.9%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.7%
Price vs 21 EMA84 · +6.8%
Price vs 50 EMA68 · +3.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA28 · -2.8%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -27.6%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -30.7%
Distance from 52W High0 · -56.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 43.1% above the current price and exhibits strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 6.8%. The company shows constructive financial metrics and a stable, strong narrative trend supporting a bullish outlook.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital significantly trails its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 12.79%5 Year CAGR: 45.57%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020182017201620152014
$235$152$80$104$24$36$54$64$20$11$35-$6

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc.Consumer Defensive

e.l.f. Beauty, Inc., in conjunction with its affiliated entities, serves as a worldwide supplier of beauty and skincare essentials. Its brand stable features prominent names such as e.l.f. Cosmetics, e.l.f. Skin, Well People, and Keys Soulcare. The company offers a diverse array of products, encompassing makeup for eyes, lips, and face, alongside comprehensive skincare solutions and other specialized items. These offerings are distributed globally through a broad network of both domestic and international retailers, as well as directly to consumers via e-commerce platforms in the United States and primarily through distributors in other countries. Established in 2004 and headquartered in Oakland, California, the company rebranded to e.l.f. Beauty, Inc. in April 2016, having previously operated under the name J.A. Cosmetics Holdings, Inc.