Market Pulse50Neutral

eBay Inc.Opportunity Rank #252(EBAY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$89.85

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$89.85
Price
$49.09
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 45%MOS: $39.27

Fundamental Score

35/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $49.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $89.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.01% long-term growth rate and a 9.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $49.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $89.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.01% long-term growth rate and a 9.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$49.09
▼ -45.36% downside
20% margin of safety: $39.27
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.01%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

35/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
45.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
6.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.3% vs WACC 11.0% (0.7x)
33
Net Debt / FCF
1.7x net debt to FCF
40
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 100 (84 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
46 news sentiment+0.2
30 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
4 layoffs-0.1
3 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0
16 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 10h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
eBay Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 44%, with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield. The company's narrative score is stable but broken, indicating ongoing challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that eBay's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.01%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.31%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,484$2,711$2,872$2,882$2,703$3,101$2,913$3,666$3,309$3,812$3,452$4,701$6,948$6,245$5,095$4,237$3,470$3,475$3,448$3,095$2,763

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates eBay Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

eBay Inc.Consumer Cyclical

eBay Inc. operates marketplace platforms that connect buyers and sellers in the United States and internationally. The company's Marketplace platform includes its online marketplace at ebay.com and the eBay suite of mobile apps. Its platforms enable users to list, buy, sell, and pay for items through various online, mobile, and offline channels that include retailers, distributors, liquidators, import and export companies, auctioneers, catalog and mail-order companies, directories, search engines, commerce participants, shopping channels, and networks. The company was founded in 1995 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.