Market Pulse57Neutral

eBay Inc.Opportunity Rank #243(EBAY) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$112.54

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$112.54
Price
$53.37
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 53%MOS: $42.70

Fundamental Score

34/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

70/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $53.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $112.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.96% long-term growth rate and a 9.38% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of eBay Inc. (EBAY) is estimated at $53.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $112.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -1.96% long-term growth rate and a 9.38% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$53.37
▼ -52.58% downside
20% margin of safety: $42.70
Years: 10Growth Rate: -1.96%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.06%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

34/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
52.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
5.2% trailing FCF yield
80
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 7.1% vs WACC 11.0% (0.6x)
32
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
57
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (83rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 52 (34 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
29 news sentiment+0.6
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Legal risk-0.1
Restructuring+0.0
18 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

70/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-5.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+15.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+2.8%
Price vs 21 EMA51 · +0.1%
Price vs 50 EMA64 · +2.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA71 · +2.8%
3M RS vs SPY70 · +5.1%
6M RS vs SPY85 · +15.5%
Distance from 52W High89 · -5.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
eBay Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price nearly 49% above the estimated fair value, supported by a healthy free cash flow yield but hindered by weak fundamentals and returns below its cost of capital. Despite a stable and improving narrative, the company's ROIC remains below its WACC, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained underperformance of returns relative to the cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -1.96%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -1.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,596$2,711$2,872$2,882$2,703$3,101$2,913$3,666$3,309$3,812$3,452$4,701$6,948$6,245$5,095$4,237$3,470$3,475$3,448$3,095$2,763

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates eBay Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

eBay Inc.Consumer Cyclical

eBay Inc. manages an extensive global e-commerce ecosystem designed to facilitate transactions between buyers and sellers. This framework primarily encompasses its flagship website, ebay.com, alongside its suite of dedicated mobile applications. Through these digital platforms, users are empowered to list, discover, purchase, and pay for a vast array of goods. These transactions occur across a multitude of channels—online, mobile, and even certain traditional avenues—involving a diverse array of participants. This includes individual sellers, small businesses, and larger entities such as retailers, distributors, liquidators, import/export firms, and auctioneers, often integrating with various commerce platforms, search engines, and shopping networks. The company was established in 1995 and its corporate headquarters are situated in San Jose, California.

eBay Inc. (EBAY) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq