Market Pulse44Neutral

Brinker International, Inc.Opportunity Rank #1(EAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$189.35

Last updated: Jul 20, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$189.35
Price
$254.37
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 34%MOS: $203.50

Fundamental Score

92/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

90/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-17

The intrinsic value of Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is estimated at $254.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $189.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.88%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is estimated at $254.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $189.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.88%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$254.37
▲ 34.34% upside
20% margin of safety: $203.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.1%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

92/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
34.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.1% vs WACC 11.0% (1.6x)
78
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
94
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (71st pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 38 (33 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
30 news sentiment+1.7
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

90/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-17310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+19.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+16.2%
Price vs 21 EMA88 · +8.4%
Price vs 50 EMA95 · +16.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA91 · +7.3%
3M RS vs SPY96 · +19.4%
6M RS vs SPY68 · +6.7%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 38d ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is undervalued with an estimated fair value 59.2% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 92 and a healthy free cash flow yield of 16.0%. The company's ROIC exceeds its cost of capital by 6.1 percentage points, indicating efficient capital allocation and growth potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the company's ROIC falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.61%5 Year CAGR: 16.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,011$944$621$441$403$464$350$380$386$415$507$509$521$422$429$330$397$363$632$916$830

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Brinker International, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Brinker International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Brinker International, Inc., in collaboration with its subsidiaries, is engaged in the creation, management, and licensing of casual dining establishments across both domestic and international markets. Its business operations are structured around two primary brands: Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, the company's collective footprint encompassed 1,648 restaurants, which included 1,594 Chili's Grill & Bar locations and 54 Maggiano's Little Italy venues, all either owned, managed, or franchised. Established in 1975, the organization's main corporate office is located in Dallas, Texas.