Market Pulse50Neutral

Brinker International, Inc.Opportunity Rank #12(EAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$146.96

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$146.96
Price
$245.09
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 67%MOS: $196.07

Fundamental Score

89/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is estimated at $245.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $146.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.63% long-term growth rate and a 10.10% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is estimated at $245.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $146.96, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.63% long-term growth rate and a 10.10% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$245.09
▲ 66.77% upside
20% margin of safety: $196.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.63%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

89/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
15.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.0% vs WACC 11.0% (1.5x)
77
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
93
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 94 (77 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
63 news sentiment+1.1
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
Earnings beat+0.0
3 analyst upgrades+0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is attractively valued with an estimated fair value 53.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 6 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 15.9%. The company demonstrates robust financial health with a bullish fundamental score of 89 and stable narrative trends.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount narrows significantly, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.63%5 Year CAGR: 17.07%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,020$944$621$441$403$464$350$380$386$415$507$509$521$422$429$330$397$363$632$916$830

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Brinker International, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Brinker International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, it owned, operated, or franchised 1,648 restaurants comprising 1,594 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar name and 54 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.