Market Pulse59Neutral

Brinker International, Inc.Opportunity Rank #49(EAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$146.30

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$146.30
Price
$254.37
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 74%MOS: $203.50

Fundamental Score

92/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

36/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is estimated at $254.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $146.30, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.99%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is estimated at $254.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $146.30, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.99%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$254.37
▲ 73.87% upside
20% margin of safety: $203.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.61%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
17.1%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

92/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
73.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
16.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 17.1% vs WACC 11.0% (1.6x)
78
Net Debt / FCF
0.3x net debt to FCF
94
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
23.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (17th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 72 (65 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 news sentiment+0.8
9 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
3 earnings beat-0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

36/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+25.1%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.7%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA24 · -5.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA43 · -0.9%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -24.7%
6M RS vs SPY94 · +25.1%
Distance from 52W High51 · -24.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Brinker International, Inc. (EAT) is undervalued with a fair value estimate 60.4% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding its cost of capital by 6.1 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 16.1%. The company demonstrates robust financial health with strong buybacks and a solid free cash flow CAGR, making it a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend despite strong fundamentals could signal emerging challenges that may impact future performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.61%5 Year CAGR: 16.87%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,011$944$621$441$403$464$350$380$386$415$507$509$521$422$429$330$397$363$632$916$830

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Brinker International, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Brinker International, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Brinker International, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the ownership, development, operation, and franchising of casual dining restaurants in the United States and internationally. The company operates in two segments, Chili's and Maggiano's. As of June 30, 2021, it owned, operated, or franchised 1,648 restaurants comprising 1,594 restaurants under the Chili's Grill & Bar name and 54 restaurants under the Maggiano's Little Italy brand name. The company was founded in 1975 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.