Market Pulse44Neutral

Devon Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #88(DVN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$43.05

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$43.05
Price
$158.27
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 268%MOS: $126.62

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is estimated at $158.27 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $43.05, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Devon Energy Corporation (DVN) is estimated at $158.27 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $43.05, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -3.12% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$158.27
▲ 267.64% upside
20% margin of safety: $126.62
Years: 10Growth Rate: -3.12%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
267.6% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
38.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
87
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
32.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (9th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 94 (81 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 upgrade headlines+0.5
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
68 news sentiment+0.2
Analyst upgrades+0.1
5 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-26.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.8%
Price vs 21 EMA27 · -3.8%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA33 · -2.1%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -26.3%
6M RS vs SPY65 · +5.6%
Distance from 52W High65 · -17.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Devon Energy Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 227.6% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and improving narrative trends. The company exhibits robust free cash flow yield and growth, making it an attractive buy opportunity.
Key Risk
Returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating sufficient economic profit.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -3.12%5 Year CAGR: 8.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$10,261$10,303$14,053$10,491$13,655$6,906$2,515$4,012$5,210$5,714$5,717$11,798$19,431$12,194$13,181$13,758$11,954$9,616$18,783$12,809$13,544

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Devon Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Devon Energy CorporationEnergy

As an independent energy producer, Devon Energy Corporation primarily focuses on the exploration, development, and extraction of oil, natural gas, and natural gas liquids within the United States. The company manages roughly 5,134 gross wells. Established in 1971, its corporate headquarters are located in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma.