Market Pulse59Neutral

Duolingo, Inc.Opportunity Rank #56(DUOL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$113.61

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$113.61
Price
$325.21
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 186%MOS: $260.17

Fundamental Score

95/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

32/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is estimated at $325.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $113.61, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.87% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.54%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is estimated at $325.21 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $113.61, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.87% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.54%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$325.21
▲ 186.25% upside
20% margin of safety: $260.17
Years: 10Growth Rate: 15.87%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
49.17%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

95/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
186.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 49.2% vs WACC 8.0% (6.1x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
82.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (84th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 97%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 107 (91 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 earnings beat+0.7
24 regulatory scrutiny-0.5
49 news sentiment+0.4
Margin pressure+0.0
11 legal risk+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Trend Details

32/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-80.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-67.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.4%
Price vs 21 EMA67 · +2.9%
Price vs 50 EMA49 · -0.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA26 · -3.1%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.4%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -67.3%
Distance from 52W High0 · -80.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Duolingo, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 171.5% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding cost of capital by 41.2 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.4%. The company's improving narrative and robust fundamental scores suggest strong growth potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is if Duolingo's ROIC falls below its cost of capital, undermining its profitability and valuation thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 39.19%5 Year CAGR: 95.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$443$406$298$167$64$15$22$7

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Duolingo, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Duolingo, Inc.Technology

Duolingo, Inc. develops a language-learning website and mobile app in the United States and China. The company offers courses in 40 different languages, including Spanish, English, French, Japanese, German, Italian, Chinese, Portuguese, and others. It also provides a digital language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.