Market Pulse50Neutral

Duolingo, Inc.Opportunity Rank #7(DUOL) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$99.75

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$99.75
Price
$293.65
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 194%MOS: $234.92

Fundamental Score

98/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

+1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is estimated at $293.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $99.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.79% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Duolingo, Inc. (DUOL) is estimated at $293.65 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $99.75, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 15.79% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$293.65
▲ 194.39% upside
20% margin of safety: $234.92
Years: 10Growth Rate: 15.79%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
66.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

98/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
194.4% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 66.3% vs WACC 8.0% (8.3x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
79.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (52nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 125 (109 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
6 analyst downgrades-0.3
83 news sentiment-0.2
12 legal risk+0.1
Layoffs-0.1
2 margin pressure+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Duolingo, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 180.6% above its current price, supported by a strong fundamental score of 98 and a ROIC that exceeds its cost of capital by 58.3 points. The company also demonstrates a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.5%, indicating robust financial health and growth potential.
Key Risk
A key risk is if Duolingo's ROIC falls below its cost of capital, which could undermine its valuation and growth prospects.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 37.85%5 Year CAGR: 91.79%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$399$406$298$167$64$15$22$7

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Duolingo, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Duolingo, Inc.Technology

Duolingo, Inc. develops a language-learning website and mobile app in the United States and China. The company offers courses in 40 different languages, including Spanish, English, French, Japanese, German, Italian, Chinese, Portuguese, and others. It also provides a digital language proficiency assessment exam. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is headquartered in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania.