Market Pulse50Neutral

Duke Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #123(DUK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$127.34

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$127.34
Price
$283.58
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 123%MOS: $226.86

Fundamental Score

54/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

75/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is estimated at $283.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.34, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.19% long-term growth rate and a 10.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is estimated at $283.58 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.34, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.19% long-term growth rate and a 10.29% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$283.58
122.70% upside
20% margin of safety: $226.86
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

54/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
122.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
16.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
87
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

75/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (87th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 95 (91 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
25 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
62 news sentiment+1.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
2 earnings miss-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Duke Energy Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 125% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score and a healthy free cash flow yield of 16.7%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's valuation and buyback activity present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's returns significantly trailing its estimated cost of capital, which could pressure valuation and future profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.19%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.89%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,495$26,376$24,608$22,482$17,294$18,005$18,763$19,331$16,575$14,676$14,699$13,442$11,970$11,908$10,745$8,035$9,314$7,852$7,714$6,333$7,129

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Duke Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Duke Energy CorporationUtilities

Duke Energy Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, operates as an energy company in the United States. It operates through three segments: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure segment generates, transmits, distributes, and sells electricity in the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwest; and uses coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable generation, and nuclear fuel to generate electricity. It also engages in the wholesale of electricity to municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and load-serving entities. This segment serves approximately 8.2 million customers in 6 states in the Southeast and Midwest regions of the United States covering a service territory of approximately 91,000 square miles; and owns approximately 50,259 megawatts (MW) of generation capacity. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment distributes natural gas to residential, commercial, industrial, and power generation natural gas customers; and owns, operates, and invests in pipeline transmission and natural gas storage facilities. It has approximately 1.6 million customers, including 1.1 million customers in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, as well as 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. The Commercial Renewables segment acquires, owns, develops, builds, and operates wind and solar renewable generation projects, including nonregulated renewable energy and energy storage services to utilities, electric cooperatives, municipalities, and corporate customers. It has 23 wind, 178 solar, and 2 battery storage facilities, as well as 71 fuel cell locations with a capacity of 3,554 MW across 22 states. The company was formerly known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. and changed its name to Duke Energy Corporation in April 2005. The company was founded in 1904 and is headquartered in Charlotte, North Carolina.