Market Pulse53Neutral

Duke Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #159(DUK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$129.26

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$129.26
Price
$281.59
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 118%MOS: $225.27

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

61/100
Constructive

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is estimated at $281.59 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.20% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.03%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Duke Energy Corporation (DUK) is estimated at $281.59 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.26, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.20% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.03%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$281.59
117.85% upside
20% margin of safety: $225.27
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.20%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
117.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
16.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
5.3x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (54th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 95%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 102 (94 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
73 news sentiment+1.4
16 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Earnings beat+0.1
4 upgrade headlines+0.0
8 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

61/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-2.2%
Price vs 21 EMA+3.0%
Price vs 50 EMA+3.5%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.0%
Price vs 50 EMA66 · +3.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA54 · +0.5%
3M RS vs SPY40 · -2.4%
6M RS vs SPY60 · +3.6%
Distance from 52W High96 · -2.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
WATCHConfidence: 45%
Thesis
Duke Energy Corporation is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 129% above its current price, suggesting potential upside. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a deteriorating narrative score.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating that it is not generating sufficient returns to cover its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.20%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$16,770$26,376$24,608$22,482$17,294$18,005$18,763$19,331$16,575$14,676$14,699$13,442$11,970$11,908$10,745$8,035$9,314$7,852$7,714$6,333$7,129

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Duke Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Duke Energy CorporationUtilities

Duke Energy Corporation, an energy provider operating across the United States with its various affiliates, structures its operations into three primary divisions: Electric Utilities and Infrastructure, Gas Utilities and Infrastructure, and Commercial Renewables. The Electric Utilities and Infrastructure division is responsible for generating, transmitting, distributing, and retailing electricity across the Carolinas, Florida, and the Midwestern states. Its power generation relies on a diverse portfolio of fuel sources, including coal, hydroelectric, natural gas, oil, renewable technologies, and nuclear energy. Beyond direct retail sales, it also provides electricity at wholesale rates to various entities such as municipalities, electric cooperative utilities, and other load-serving organizations. This segment caters to approximately 8.2 million customers spanning six states within the Southeastern and Midwestern U.S., encompassing a service area of about 91,000 square miles, and boasts an impressive generating capacity of approximately 50,259 megawatts. The Gas Utilities and Infrastructure segment focuses on the distribution of natural gas to a broad customer base, including residential homes, commercial enterprises, industrial facilities, and power generation plants. It also manages, operates, and invests in essential pipeline transmission networks and natural gas storage facilities. This segment serves around 1.6 million customers in total, with roughly 1.1 million located in North Carolina, South Carolina, and Tennessee, and an additional 550,000 customers in southwestern Ohio and northern Kentucky. Through its Commercial Renewables division, Duke Energy is actively involved in the acquisition, development, construction, ownership, and operation of wind and solar power projects. This includes offering non-regulated renewable energy and energy storage solutions to a variety of clients, such as utility companies, electric cooperatives, municipal governments, and corporate entities. The division's portfolio comprises 23 wind farms, 178 solar installations, two battery storage sites, and 71 fuel cell locations, totaling a substantial capacity of 3,554 MW spread across 22 different states. Established in 1904, the company was initially known as Duke Energy Holding Corp. before adopting its current name, Duke Energy Corporation, in April 2005. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Charlotte, North Carolina.