Market Pulse50Neutral

Leonardo DRS, Inc.(DRS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$44.40

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$44.40
Price
$29.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 34%MOS: $23.36

Fundamental Score

48/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) is estimated at $29.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.40, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) is estimated at $29.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.40, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.30% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$29.20
-34.23% downside
20% margin of safety: $23.36
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.30%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.81%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

48/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
34.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.3% trailing FCF yield
57
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.8% vs WACC 8.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 62%Updated: 32m ago
Sources: 21 (21 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
17 news sentiment+0.6
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Leonardo DRS, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 38% relative to its estimated fair value of $27.61, with returns trailing its cost of capital and a net cash balance sheet. Despite a strong free cash flow growth rate, the company’s ROIC is significantly below its WACC, indicating operational inefficiency.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company fails to improve its ROIC relative to WACC, which could further depress valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Emergence of fresh sentiment coverage to replace missing narrative signals
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.30%5 Year CAGR: 16.24%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018200820072006
$505$505$356$265$98$238$181$212$145$283$251$200

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Leonardo DRS, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Leonardo DRS, Inc.Industrials

Leonardo DRS, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, provides defense products and technologies in the land, air, sea, space, cyber and security, and commercial domains for military applications. It operates in two segments, Advanced Sensing and Computing, and Integrated Mission Systems. The company offers advanced sensor technologies, including infrared systems and sensors for threat detection and situational awareness; uncooled infrared systems and brownout solutions; airborne, ground vehicle mounted, and dismounted soldier electronic warfare (EW) systems; and EW software and training systems, and intelligence solutions. It also provides computing systems for ground vehicles, ships, and submarines; network and data distribution applications; sensor systems; and networked computing infrastructure on military platform. In addition, the company offers force protection systems, such as solutions for counter-unmanned aerial systems, short-range air defense systems, and active protection systems; and power control, distribution, conversion, and propulsion systems, as well as hybrid electric drive propulsion systems, energy storage, gas turbine packages, nuclear instrumentation and controls, and thermal management and refrigeration equipment. It serves the U.S. military, aerospace and defense prime contractors, government intelligence agencies, and international military customers. The company was founded in 1969 and is based in Arlington, Virginia.

Leonardo DRS, Inc. (DRS) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq