Market Pulse46Neutral

Domino's Pizza, Inc.Opportunity Rank #163(DPZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$299.46

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$299.46
Price
$285.32
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 5%MOS: $228.26

Fundamental Score

67/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

+7 vs previous

Trend Score

19/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is estimated at $285.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $299.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.58% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is estimated at $285.32 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $299.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.58% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.31%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$285.32
▼ -4.72% downside
20% margin of safety: $228.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.58%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
26.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

67/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.7% premium to price
42
FCF Yield
9.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 27.0% vs WACC 7.0% (3.9x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
5.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
5.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
53
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
+7 vs previous · +4 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 66 (38 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
29 news sentiment+0.2
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Promotions/discounting-0.1
Earnings beat+0.1
28 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

19/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-30.8%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-3.8%
Price vs 21 EMA40 · -1.7%
Price vs 50 EMA25 · -5.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA21 · -3.8%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -30.8%
6M RS vs SPY2 · -35.6%
Distance from 52W High23 · -38.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 65%
Thesis
Domino's Pizza, Inc. presents a compelling buy opportunity with a strong fundamental score of 74 and a valuation implying a 16.5% upside, supported by a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital by nearly 20 percentage points. The company's improving narrative and robust free cash flow growth further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
Elevated leverage at 5.2x net debt to free cash flow poses a financial risk that could impact the company's flexibility and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.58%5 Year CAGR: 3.66%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320232022202120192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$896$913$738$563$696$748$682$583$514$429$346$355$262$234$206$177$154$124$95$127$153

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Domino's Pizza, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Domino's Pizza, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Domino's Pizza, Inc. operates as a leading international and domestic purveyor of pizza, managing its extensive operations through three distinct segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company is primarily recognized for its Domino's-branded pizzas, which are distributed via a vast network of both corporate-owned and independently franchised outlets. Beyond its flagship product, the menu also encompasses a variety of other offerings, including oven-baked sandwiches, pasta dishes, boneless and winged chicken, various bread and dip accompaniments, desserts, and soft drink beverages. As of January 2, 2022, the enterprise boasted approximately 18,800 locations spanning 90 global markets. Established in 1960, Domino's Pizza, Inc. is headquartered in Ann Arbor, Michigan.