Market Pulse50Neutral

Domino's Pizza, Inc.Opportunity Rank #138(DPZ) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$366.80

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$366.80
Price
$361.89
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 1%MOS: $289.51

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is estimated at $361.89 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $366.80, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.59% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) is estimated at $361.89 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $366.80, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.59% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.90%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$361.89
▼ -1.34% downside
20% margin of safety: $289.51
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.59%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
28.35%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
1.3% premium to price
48
FCF Yield
7.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 28.4% vs WACC 7.0% (4.1x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
5.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
6.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
55
Strengths: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC. Concerns: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (52nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 50m ago
Sources: 96 (80 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
53 news sentiment+0.9
20 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
3 earnings miss+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 10h ago
BUYConfidence: 63%
Thesis
Domino's Pizza, Inc. demonstrates strong fundamentals with a ROIC significantly exceeding its cost of capital by 21.4 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.4%, supporting a BUY recommendation. The company's valuation shows modest upside potential with a fair value slightly above the current price.
Key Risk
The deteriorating narrative trend poses a risk to sustained performance and investor sentiment.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor narrative score for meaningful directional shifts.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.59%5 Year CAGR: 4.05%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320232022202120192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$913$913$738$563$696$748$682$583$514$429$346$355$262$234$206$177$154$124$95$127$153

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Domino's Pizza, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Domino's Pizza, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Domino's Pizza, Inc., through its subsidiaries, operates as a pizza company in the United States and internationally. It operates through three segments: U.S. Stores, International Franchise, and Supply Chain. The company offers pizzas under the Domino's brand name through company-owned and franchised stores. It also provides oven-baked sandwiches, pasta, boneless chicken and chicken wings, bread and dips side items, desserts, and soft drink products. As of January 2, 2022, the company operated approximately 18,800 stores in 90 markets. Domino's Pizza, Inc. was founded in 1960 and is based in Ann Arbor, Michigan.