DLTR

$119.60

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 6.30% trendline growth.
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$450.01

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$360.01
201.01% upside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
4.57%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
58
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
201.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
1.5x net debt to FCF
46
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).
Narrative Score
66
Improving
Weighted across 5 recent drivers · Last 30 days-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline: Above Avg (65th pct)
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 48 (News 30 · Analyst 18)
Drivers
11 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
18 news sentiment+0.7
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
17 analyst reiterations0.0
Other Metrics
P/E-8.3
Profit Margin-15.4%
Owner Earnings-$1.68b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity3.28
Current Ratio1.04
PEG-10.274
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$504$642$563$534$746$697$937$990$1,124$1,252$1,261$2,239$2,142$2,583$2,907$3,615$2,454$2,869$4,792$3,142
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Dollar Tree, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Dollar Tree, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Valuation | Intrinziq