Market Pulse50Neutral

Dollar Tree, Inc.Opportunity Rank #118(DLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$108.27

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$108.27
Price
$334.39
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 209%MOS: $267.51

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

76/100
Strong

-4 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is estimated at $334.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $108.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.14% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is estimated at $334.39 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $108.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.14% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$334.39
208.85% upside
20% margin of safety: $267.51
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.53%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
208.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.5% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
21
Net Debt / FCF
1.1x net debt to FCF
58
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

76/100
Strong
-4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (87th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 50m ago
Sources: 74 (58 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
43 news sentiment+1.7
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings beat+0.3
Earnings miss+0.3
Downgrade headlines+0.0
2 analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Dollar Tree, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value over 211% above its current price, supported by strong narrative momentum and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's free cash flow yield and buyback activity indicate potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could undermine value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.14%5 Year CAGR: 0.28%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$3,667$4,162$4,792$2,869$2,454$3,615$2,907$2,583$2,142$2,239$1,261$1,252$1,124$990$937$697$746$534$563$642

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Dollar Tree, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Dollar Tree, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Dollar Tree, Inc. operates discount variety retail stores. It operates in two segments, Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment offers merchandise at the fixed price of $ 1.25. It provides consumable merchandise, including candy and food, and health and personal care, as well as everyday consumables, such as household paper and chemicals, and frozen and refrigerated food; variety merchandise comprising toys, durable housewares, gifts, stationery, party goods, greeting cards, softlines, arts and crafts supplies, and other items; and seasonal goods that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,061 stores under the Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, as well as 15 distribution centers in the United States and 2 distribution centers in Canada. The Family Dollar segment operates general merchandise retail discount stores that offer consumable merchandise, which comprise food and beverages, tobacco, health and personal care, household chemicals, paper products, hardware and automotive supplies, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies; and home products, including housewares, home décor, and giftware, as well as domestics, such as comforters, sheets, and towels. It also provides apparel and accessories merchandise comprising clothing, fashion accessories, and shoes; and seasonal and electronics merchandise that include Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day merchandise, as well as personal electronics, which comprise pre-paid cellular phones and services, stationery and school supplies, and toys. As of January 29, 2022, this segment operated 8,016 stores under the Family Dollar brand; and 11 distribution centers. The company was founded in 1986 and is based in Chesapeake, Virginia.