Dollar Tree, Inc.Opportunity Rank #46(DLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)
Current Price
$113.93
Last updated: Jun 23, 2026
Price vs Intrinsic Value
Fundamental Score
Weighted across 6 signals
Narrative Score
+2 vs previous
Trend Score
As of 2026-06-22
The intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is estimated at $360.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $113.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.
The intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is estimated at $360.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $113.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.Valuation Details
Capital Efficiency
The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.
Fundamental Details
Narrative Details
Trend Details
Investment Coach
- Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
- Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
- Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value
Intrinziq estimates Dollar Tree, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.
Dollar Tree, Inc.Consumer Defensive
Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a substantial presence with 8,061 retail locations across its Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, supported by 15 distribution centers in the U.S. and an additional two in Canada. Conversely, the Family Dollar segment functions as a general merchandise discount chain with varying prices. Its inventory is comprehensive, covering a wide array of consumable goods such as groceries, beverages, tobacco, personal care and health products, household chemicals, paper products, hardware, automotive accessories, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies. Additionally, the segment provides home products, which include housewares, home décor, giftware, and domestics like bedding and towels. Shoppers can also find apparel and accessories, encompassing clothing, fashion items, and footwear. Seasonal and electronics merchandise, ranging from holiday-specific goods to pre-paid cellular phones and services, along with stationery, school supplies, and toys, are also key offerings. As of January 29, 2022, the Family Dollar brand operated 8,016 stores and was supported by 11 distribution centers. Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree, Inc. is headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.