Market Pulse44Neutral

Dollar Tree, Inc.Opportunity Rank #46(DLTR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$113.93

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$113.93
Price
$360.29
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 216%MOS: $288.23

Fundamental Score

62/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

53/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is estimated at $360.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $113.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) is estimated at $360.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $113.93, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.17% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.02%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$360.29
216.24% upside
20% margin of safety: $288.23
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.17%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

62/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
216.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
17.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.5x)
23
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
1.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 87%Updated: 5h ago
Sources: 53 (43 News · 10 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
37 news sentiment+1.8
2 earnings beat+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

53/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-22.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.6%
Price vs 21 EMA+5.3%
Price vs 21 EMA79 · +5.3%
Price vs 50 EMA81 · +7.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA67 · +2.2%
3M RS vs SPY23 · -7.2%
6M RS vs SPY8 · -22.1%
Distance from 52W High61 · -19.3%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Dollar Tree, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 225.8% above its current price, supported by strong narrative and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows promising free cash flow yield and buyback activity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the deteriorating narrative trend and the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may pressure future returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.17%5 Year CAGR: 1.17%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$3,832$4,162$4,792$2,869$2,454$3,615$2,907$2,583$2,142$2,239$1,261$1,252$1,124$990$937$697$746$534$563$642

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Dollar Tree, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Dollar Tree, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Dollar Tree, Inc. (DLTR) operates as a leading discount retailer, managing its extensive operations through two principal divisions: Dollar Tree and Family Dollar. The Dollar Tree segment distinguishes itself by offering all its merchandise at a consistent price of $1.25. Its product range is broad, encompassing essential consumables like confectionery, various food items, health and personal care products, household cleaning chemicals, paper goods, and frozen or refrigerated foods. Beyond these daily necessities, customers can find a diverse selection of general merchandise, including toys, resilient housewares, gifts, stationery, party essentials, greeting cards, softline apparel, and arts and crafts supplies. The segment also prominently features seasonal items for holidays such as Christmas, Easter, Halloween, and Valentine's Day. By January 29, 2022, this division maintained a substantial presence with 8,061 retail locations across its Dollar Tree and Dollar Tree Canada brands, supported by 15 distribution centers in the U.S. and an additional two in Canada. Conversely, the Family Dollar segment functions as a general merchandise discount chain with varying prices. Its inventory is comprehensive, covering a wide array of consumable goods such as groceries, beverages, tobacco, personal care and health products, household chemicals, paper products, hardware, automotive accessories, diapers, batteries, and pet food and supplies. Additionally, the segment provides home products, which include housewares, home décor, giftware, and domestics like bedding and towels. Shoppers can also find apparel and accessories, encompassing clothing, fashion items, and footwear. Seasonal and electronics merchandise, ranging from holiday-specific goods to pre-paid cellular phones and services, along with stationery, school supplies, and toys, are also key offerings. As of January 29, 2022, the Family Dollar brand operated 8,016 stores and was supported by 11 distribution centers. Founded in 1986, Dollar Tree, Inc. is headquartered in Chesapeake, Virginia.