Market Pulse59Neutral

Dine Brands Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #219(DIN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$28.29

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$28.29
Price
$25.74
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 9%MOS: $20.59

Fundamental Score

37/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

39/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) is estimated at $25.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $28.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.48% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.17%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) is estimated at $25.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $28.29, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.48% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.17%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$25.74
▼ -9.01% downside
20% margin of safety: $20.59
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.21%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

37/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
9.0% premium to price
35
FCF Yield
34.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
8.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (94th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 78%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 19 (14 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
11 news sentiment+1.1
2 earnings beat-0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

39/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-2.6%
Price vs 21 EMA+2.2%
Price vs 21 EMA63 · +2.2%
Price vs 50 EMA48 · -0.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA29 · -2.6%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -28.0%
6M RS vs SPY57 · +2.6%
Distance from 52W High46 · -26.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Dine Brands Global, Inc. exhibits weak fundamentals with a bearish score of 39 and returns trailing its estimated cost of capital, despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 34.2%. The company's leverage is elevated at 8.8x net debt to free cash flow, contributing to the cautious investment stance.
Key Risk
Elevated leverage and negative spread between ROIC and WACC pose significant financial risks to the company’s valuation and operational stability.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.48%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -5.70%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$126$125$122$168$125$213$107$175$155$79$124$142$124$135$70$148$198$173$143$118$74

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Dine Brands Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Dine Brands Global, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Dine Brands Global, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns, franchises, operates, and rents full-service restaurants in the United States and internationally. It operates through five segments: Applebee's Franchise Operations, International House of Pancakes (IHOP) Franchise Operations, Rental Operations, Financing Operations, and Company-Operated Restaurant Operations. The company owns and franchises two restaurant concepts, including Applebee's Neighborhood Grill + Bar in the bar and grill segment of the casual dining category; and IHOP in the family dining category of the restaurant industry. Its Applebee's restaurants offer American fare with drinks and drafts; and IHOP restaurants provide full table services, and food and beverage offerings. As of December 31, 2021, the company had 1,611 Applebee's franchised restaurants, and 1,751 IHOP franchised and area licensed restaurants. It is also involved in the lease or sublease of 598 IHOP franchised restaurants and two Applebee's franchised restaurants; and the financing of franchise fees and equipment leases. the company was formerly known as DineEquity, Inc. and changed its name to Dine Brands Global, Inc. in February 2018. Dine Brands Global, Inc. was founded in 1958 and is headquartered in Glendale, California.