Market Pulse44Neutral

Dine Brands Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #253(DIN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$33.38

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$33.38
Price
$25.74
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 23%MOS: $20.59

Fundamental Score

32/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

67/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) is estimated at $25.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.48% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Dine Brands Global, Inc. (DIN) is estimated at $25.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.38, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.48% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 3.39%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$25.74
-22.89% downside
20% margin of safety: $20.59
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.95%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

32/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
22.9% premium to price
12
FCF Yield
29.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 7.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
8.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (12th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 63%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 18 (15 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
10 news sentiment+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
2 earnings beat-0.0
Legal risk+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Trend Details

67/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+9.4%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-12.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+4.0%
Price vs 21 EMA78 · +5.2%
Price vs 50 EMA86 · +9.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA79 · +4.0%
3M RS vs SPY61 · +2.7%
6M RS vs SPY20 · -12.5%
Distance from 52W High72 · -14.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Dine Brands Global, Inc. exhibits weak fundamentals with returns trailing its cost of capital and shares trading above fair value, indicating limited upside potential. Elevated leverage further constrains the company's financial flexibility despite ongoing buybacks.
Key Risk
Continued underperformance relative to the cost of capital and high leverage could exacerbate financial strain and depress shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the company narrative and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.48%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -5.70%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$126$125$122$168$125$213$107$175$155$79$124$142$124$135$70$148$198$173$143$118$74

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Dine Brands Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Dine Brands Global, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Dine Brands Global, Inc., along with its associated entities, manages a portfolio of full-service dining establishments, utilizing various models including direct ownership, franchising agreements, operational oversight, and property leasing, both domestically in the U.S. and across global markets. The enterprise structures its business into five principal divisions: Applebee's Franchise Management, IHOP Franchise Management, Real Estate Leasing, Financial Services, and Corporate Restaurant Operations. It holds ownership and franchising rights for two prominent restaurant brands: Applebee's Neighborhood Grill + Bar, a casual dining concept specializing in the bar and grill segment, and IHOP, a well-known name in the family dining sector. Applebee's locations feature classic American cuisine complemented by a selection of beverages, while IHOP establishments are recognized for their extensive table service and diverse food and drink menu. As of the close of 2021, the company's network encompassed 1,611 franchised Applebee's eateries and 1,751 IHOP outlets operating under either franchise or area license agreements. Furthermore, Dine Brands participates in the leasing or subleasing of 598 IHOP franchised properties and two Applebee's franchised properties, in addition to providing financial solutions for franchise fees and equipment acquisition. Formerly operating as DineEquity, Inc., the firm adopted its current designation, Dine Brands Global, Inc., in February 2018. Established in 1958, its corporate headquarters are situated in Glendale, California.