Market Pulse59Neutral

Deere & CompanyOpportunity Rank #161(DE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$580.54

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$580.54
Price
$642.45
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 11%MOS: $513.96

Fundamental Score

44/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE) is estimated at $642.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $580.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.94% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE) is estimated at $642.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $580.54, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.94% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.76%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$642.45
10.66% upside
20% margin of safety: $513.96
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.94%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

44/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
10.7% discount to price
68
FCF Yield
7.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
4.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (44th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 97%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 87 (72 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
34 news sentiment+0.5
Earnings beat+0.5
34 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings miss-0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+12.5%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-8.2%
Distance from 52-Week High-13.2%
Price vs 21 EMA44 · -0.9%
Price vs 50 EMA47 · -0.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA54 · +0.4%
3M RS vs SPY20 · -8.2%
6M RS vs SPY80 · +12.5%
Distance from 52W High74 · -13.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Deere & Company shows a potential 14.6% upside based on valuation with a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%, but returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital. The company's fundamentals are bearish with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating operational challenges despite ongoing buybacks and stable narrative trends.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may limit value creation and pressure returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.94%5 Year CAGR: 2.79%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,826$11,687$14,033$13,057$8,487$10,306$10,139$6,861$4,770$4,792$6,719$6,566$6,185$5,630$3,289$4,007$3,595$3,293$3,557$4,244$1,739

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Deere & Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Deere & CompanyIndustrials

Deere & Company manufactures and distributes various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides mid-size tractors, combines, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters, harvesting front-end equipment, sugarcane loaders, pull-behind scrapers, and tillage and seeding equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, and soil preparation machinery for grain growers. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers utility tractors, and related loaders and attachments; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn equipment, commercial mowing equipment, golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications; other outdoor power products; and hay and forage equipment. This segment also resells products from other manufacturers. It serves dairy and livestock producers, crop producers, and turf and utility customers. The Construction and Forestry segment provides a range of backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape and skid-steer loaders, milling machines, pavers, compactors, rollers, crushers, screens, asphalt plants, log skidders, log feller bunchers, log loaders and forwarders, log harvesters, and attachments; and roadbuilding equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties, as well as finances retail revolving charge accounts. Deere & Company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.