Market Pulse50Neutral

Deere & CompanyOpportunity Rank #180(DE) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$569.03

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$569.03
Price
$642.45
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 13%MOS: $513.96

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

69/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE) is estimated at $642.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $569.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.94% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Deere & Company (DE) is estimated at $642.45 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $569.03, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.94% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.73%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$642.45
12.90% upside
20% margin of safety: $513.96
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.94%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.2%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
12.9% discount to price
72
FCF Yield
7.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.2% vs WACC 11.0% (0.2x)
10
Net Debt / FCF
4.6x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

69/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (73rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 122 (111 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
43 regulatory scrutiny+1.2
65 news sentiment+0.7
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0
10 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
WATCHConfidence: 48%
Thesis
Deere & Company shows a valuation upside of approximately 16.9% supported by a strong narrative score and healthy free cash flow yield of 7.7%. However, returns currently trail the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential operational challenges despite positive buyback activity.
Key Risk
The key risk is the persistent negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may undermine value creation if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.94%5 Year CAGR: 2.79%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$11,826$11,687$14,033$13,057$8,487$10,306$10,139$6,861$4,770$4,792$6,719$6,566$6,185$5,630$3,289$4,007$3,595$3,293$3,557$4,244$1,739

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Deere & Company's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Deere & CompanyIndustrials

Deere & Company manufactures and distributes various equipment worldwide. The company operates through four segments: Production and Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture and Turf, Construction and Forestry, and Financial Services. The Production and Precision Agriculture segment provides mid-size tractors, combines, cotton pickers and strippers, sugarcane harvesters, harvesting front-end equipment, sugarcane loaders, pull-behind scrapers, and tillage and seeding equipment, as well as application equipment, including sprayers and nutrient management, and soil preparation machinery for grain growers. The Small Agriculture and Turf segment offers utility tractors, and related loaders and attachments; turf and utility equipment, including riding lawn equipment, commercial mowing equipment, golf course equipment, and utility vehicles, as well as implements for mowing, tilling, snow and debris handling, aerating, residential, commercial, golf, and sports turf care applications; other outdoor power products; and hay and forage equipment. This segment also resells products from other manufacturers. It serves dairy and livestock producers, crop producers, and turf and utility customers. The Construction and Forestry segment provides a range of backhoe loaders, crawler dozers and loaders, four-wheel-drive loaders, excavators, motor graders, articulated dump trucks, landscape and skid-steer loaders, milling machines, pavers, compactors, rollers, crushers, screens, asphalt plants, log skidders, log feller bunchers, log loaders and forwarders, log harvesters, and attachments; and roadbuilding equipment. The Financial Services segment finances sales and leases agriculture and turf, and construction and forestry equipment. It also offers wholesale financing to dealers of the foregoing equipment; and extended equipment warranties, as well as finances retail revolving charge accounts. Deere & Company was founded in 1837 and is headquartered in Moline, Illinois.