Market Pulse50Neutral

Datadog, Inc.Opportunity Rank #204(DDOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$129.23

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$129.23
Price
$83.29
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 36%MOS: $66.63

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is estimated at $83.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.91% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is estimated at $83.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.23, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.91% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$83.29
▼ -35.55% downside
20% margin of safety: $66.63
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
35.5% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.4% trailing FCF yield
10
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.7% vs WACC 9.0% (1.4x)
70
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
52.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (44th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 138 (106 News · 32 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
65 news sentiment+1.1
33 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
2 upgrade headlines+0.2
4 earnings beat+0.0
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
2 analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Datadog, Inc. is currently trading at a significant premium to its estimated fair value despite demonstrating a return on invested capital (ROIC) that exceeds its cost of capital by 3.7 percentage points, supported by a stable narrative score and a strong balance sheet position. The company's fundamentals show neutral overall strength with positive free cash flow growth and a net cash position, suggesting potential value if the price corrects.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not decline to a level that reflects its fair value, limiting upside potential and possibly leading to overvaluation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above the cost of capital over the coming quarters.
  • Narrative score trend shows meaningful shifts in direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 20.99%5 Year CAGR: 27.80%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$1,100$1,100$905$688$483$323$135$48$27$22

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Datadog, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Datadog, Inc.Technology

Datadog, Inc. provides monitoring and analytics platform for developers, information technology operations teams, and business users in the cloud in North America and internationally. The company's SaaS platform integrates and automates infrastructure monitoring, application performance monitoring, log management, and security monitoring to provide real-time observability of its customers technology stack. Its platform also provides user experience monitoring, network performance monitoring, cloud security, developer-focused observability, and incident management, as well as a range of shared features, such as dashboards, analytics, collaboration tools, and alerting capabilities. The company was incorporated in 2010 and is headquartered in New York, New York.