Market Pulse44Neutral

Datadog, Inc.Opportunity Rank #181(DDOG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$221.37

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$221.37
Price
$73.40
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 67%MOS: $58.72

Fundamental Score

57/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

71/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

82/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is estimated at $73.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.37, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.40% long-term growth rate and a 10.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Datadog, Inc. (DDOG) is estimated at $73.40 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $221.37, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.40% long-term growth rate and a 10.65% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$73.40
▼ -66.84% downside
20% margin of safety: $58.72
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.40%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
12.25%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

57/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
66.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.5% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 12.3% vs WACC 8.0% (1.5x)
77
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
53.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

71/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (34th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 138 (95 News · 43 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
19 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
70 news sentiment+0.7
4 upgrade headlines+0.6
2 analyst upgrades+0.1
Downgrade headlines+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0

Trend Details

82/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+62.2%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+51.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+13.0%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.5%
Price vs 50 EMA90 · +11.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA98 · +13.0%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +62.2%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +51.1%
Distance from 52W High60 · -20.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 55%
Thesis
Datadog, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price significantly above the estimated fair value despite a supportive and stable improving narrative and a near net cash balance sheet. The company shows modest returns above its cost of capital and strong free cash flow growth, but the thin free cash flow yield limits its attractiveness.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the stock price remains significantly above fair value, limiting upside potential and increasing downside risk.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 21.16%5 Year CAGR: 28.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$1,147$1,100$905$688$483$323$135$48$27$22

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Datadog, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Datadog, Inc.Technology

Datadog, Inc. offers a comprehensive cloud-based monitoring and analytics solution, serving the needs of developers, IT operations personnel, and business stakeholders across North America and internationally. This Software-as-a-Service (SaaS) offering skillfully combines and automates several crucial functions, including infrastructure oversight, application performance tracking, log management, and security surveillance, all designed to deliver live, end-to-end visibility into its customers' technology environments. Additionally, the platform extends its capabilities to include user experience monitoring, network performance analytics, robust cloud security measures, specialized observability tools for developers, and efficient incident response management. It also comes equipped with standard features like configurable dashboards, sophisticated analytical tools, collaborative features, and proactive alert systems. The company was founded in 2010 and is based in New York, New York.