Market Pulse50Neutral

DoorDash, Inc.Opportunity Rank #203(DASH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$159.98

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$159.98
Price
$121.74
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 24%MOS: $97.39

Fundamental Score

49/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) is estimated at $121.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $159.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and an 11.31% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of DoorDash, Inc. (DASH) is estimated at $121.74 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $159.98, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and an 11.31% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$121.74
▼ -23.90% downside
20% margin of safety: $97.39
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.57%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

49/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
23.9% premium to price
10
FCF Yield
4.4% trailing FCF yield
59
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.6% vs WACC 9.0% (0.4x)
20
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
49.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (61st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 131 (108 News · 23 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
85 news sentiment+1.4
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
2 earnings miss+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 59%
Thesis
DoorDash, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 20%, with returns trailing its estimated cost of capital despite a supportive and improving narrative and a strong balance sheet. The company shows neutral fundamentals with a net cash position and an improving narrative score, but its ROIC is below WACC.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that DoorDash's returns may not improve sufficiently to justify its current valuation, leading to further price declines.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 27.71%5 Year CAGR: 26.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018
$3,036$2,688$2,462$1,997$713$929$411-$375-$143

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates DoorDash, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

DoorDash, Inc.Communication Services

DoorDash, Inc. operates a logistics platform that connects merchants, consumers, and dashers in the United States and internationally. It operates DoorDash and Wolt marketplaces, which provides an array of services that enable merchants to solve mission-critical challenges, such as customer acquisition, delivery, insights and analytics, merchandising, payment processing, and customer support; DashPass and Wolt+, a membership products; and offers DoorDash Drive and Wolt Drive, a white-label delivery fulfillment services; DoorDash Storefront that enables merchants to offer consumers on-demand access to e-commerce; and Bbot, which offers merchants digital ordering and payment solutions for in-store and online channels. The company was formerly known as Palo Alto Delivery Inc. and changed its name to DoorDash, Inc. in 2015. DoorDash, Inc. was incorporated in 2013 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.