Market Pulse59Neutral

Chevron CorporationOpportunity Rank #46(CVX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$182.51

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$182.51
Price
$333.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 82%MOS: $266.42

Fundamental Score

74/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

44/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CVX) is estimated at $333.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $182.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CVX) is estimated at $333.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $182.51, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$333.02
▲ 82.47% upside
20% margin of safety: $266.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: -0.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.38%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

74/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
82.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
13.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
84
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (53rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 214 (200 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
151 news sentiment+3.4
3 earnings beat+0.4
Downgrade headlines+0.4
2 upgrade headlines-0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Legal risk+0.0

Trend Details

44/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+10.1%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-6.4%
Price vs 21 EMA-3.8%
Price vs 21 EMA28 · -3.8%
Price vs 50 EMA32 · -3.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA51 · +0.1%
3M RS vs SPY26 · -6.4%
6M RS vs SPY75 · +10.1%
Distance from 52W High72 · -14.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Chevron Corporation is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 79.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and an improving narrative trend. The company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for substantial shareholder returns.
Key Risk
Chevron's return on invested capital (ROIC) is currently below its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which may pressure future profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -0.48%5 Year CAGR: 5.52%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$48,779$51,286$47,940$51,438$61,576$37,287$19,477$41,400$44,400$33,919$30,955$48,960$66,882$72,987$69,750$67,598$50,971$39,216$49,298$41,655$38,136

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chevron Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chevron CorporationEnergy

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as operates a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It is also involved in the cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and technology businesses. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.