Market Pulse50Neutral

Chevron CorporationOpportunity Rank #62(CVX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$205.23

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$205.23
Price
$353.63
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 72%MOS: $282.90

Fundamental Score

69/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CVX) is estimated at $353.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $205.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.41% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CVX) is estimated at $353.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $205.23, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.41% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.46%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$353.63
▲ 72.31% upside
20% margin of safety: $282.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: -0.41%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.69%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

69/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
72.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
12.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.7% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (58th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 213 (200 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
140 news sentiment+4.2
58 regulatory scrutiny+3.2
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
Analyst downgrades-0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Chevron Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 70% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a constructive narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company demonstrates robust free cash flow growth and a bullish fundamental score.
Key Risk
Chevron's return on invested capital remains significantly below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -0.41%5 Year CAGR: 6.60%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$51,318$51,286$47,940$51,438$61,576$37,287$19,477$41,400$44,400$33,919$30,955$48,960$66,882$72,987$69,750$67,598$50,971$39,216$49,298$41,655$38,136

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chevron Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chevron CorporationEnergy

Chevron Corporation, through its subsidiaries, engages in integrated energy and chemicals operations worldwide. The company operates in two segments, Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment is involved in the exploration, development, production, and transportation of crude oil and natural gas; processing, liquefaction, transportation, and regasification associated with liquefied natural gas; transportation of crude oil through pipelines; and transportation, storage, and marketing of natural gas, as well as operates a gas-to-liquids plant. The Downstream segment engages in refining crude oil into petroleum products; marketing crude oil, refined products, and lubricants; manufacturing and marketing of renewable fuels; transporting crude oil and refined products by pipeline, marine vessel, motor equipment, and rail car; and manufacturing and marketing of commodity petrochemicals, plastics for industrial uses, and fuel and lubricant additives. It is also involved in the cash management and debt financing activities; insurance operations; real estate activities; and technology businesses. The company was formerly known as ChevronTexaco Corporation and changed its name to Chevron Corporation in 2005. Chevron Corporation was founded in 1879 and is based in San Ramon, California.