Market Pulse44Neutral

Chevron CorporationOpportunity Rank #53(CVX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$175.08

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$175.08
Price
$333.02
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 90%MOS: $266.42

Fundamental Score

74/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

33/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CVX) is estimated at $333.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $175.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.19%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chevron Corporation (CVX) is estimated at $333.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $175.08, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.48% long-term growth rate and an 8.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.19%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$333.02
90.21% upside
20% margin of safety: $266.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: -0.48%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

74/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
90.2% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.5% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
84
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
20.2% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (52nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 213 (200 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
174 news sentiment+3.6
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
2 downgrade headlines+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst upgrades+0.0
12 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

33/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.0%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.9%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.7%
Price vs 21 EMA23 · -4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA23 · -5.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA39 · -1.3%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -28.0%
6M RS vs SPY67 · +6.2%
Distance from 52W High66 · -17.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Chevron Corporation is undervalued with an estimated fair value 72.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a positive narrative score. The company shows robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating potential for long-term value creation.
Key Risk
Chevron's returns are currently trailing its estimated cost of capital, which could pressure future profitability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC versus WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -0.48%5 Year CAGR: 5.52%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$48,779$51,286$47,940$51,438$61,576$37,287$19,477$41,400$44,400$33,919$30,955$48,960$66,882$72,987$69,750$67,598$50,971$39,216$49,298$41,655$38,136

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chevron Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chevron CorporationEnergy

Chevron Corporation functions as a global energy and chemicals powerhouse, orchestrating its diverse operations worldwide. The company's business is organized into two primary divisions: Upstream and Downstream. The Upstream segment focuses on the full lifecycle of crude oil and natural gas, from their initial exploration and development to production and subsequent transportation. This also encompasses the processing, liquefaction, transit, and regasification of liquefied natural gas (LNG), as well as pipeline transport of crude oil and the movement, storage, and sale of natural gas. Additionally, this segment manages a facility dedicated to converting natural gas into liquid fuels. In contrast, the Downstream segment is tasked with refining crude oil into a variety of petroleum products. Its activities include the merchandising of crude oil, refined goods, and lubricants, in addition to the creation and distribution of renewable fuels. This division is also responsible for moving crude oil and refined products using a range of methods, including pipelines, ships, motor vehicles, and rail cars. Furthermore, it produces and markets bulk petrochemicals, industrial-grade plastics, and additives for both fuels and lubricants. Beyond these core ventures, Chevron is also involved in financial management, debt financing, insurance underwriting, real estate development, and various technology-driven enterprises. Founded in 1879, the company operated as ChevronTexaco Corporation until it officially became Chevron Corporation in 2005. Its corporate headquarters are situated in San Ramon, California.