Market Pulse53Neutral

CVS Health Corp.Opportunity Rank #52(CVS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$107.61

Last updated: Jul 21, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$107.61
Price
$147.47
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 37%MOS: $117.98

Fundamental Score

40/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

66/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

88/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-20

The intrinsic value of CVS Health Corp. (CVS) is estimated at $147.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.61, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.00% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.85%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CVS Health Corp. (CVS) is estimated at $147.47 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $107.61, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.00% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 6.85%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$147.47
▲ 37.04% upside
20% margin of safety: $117.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.00%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.36%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

40/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
37.0% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
7
Net Debt / FCF
3.9x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-3.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

66/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (11th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 11h ago
Sources: 101 (81 News · 20 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
71 news sentiment+1.3
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat+0.1
Upgrade headlines+0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

88/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-20308 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+34.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+25.1%
Price vs 21 EMA71 · +3.7%
Price vs 50 EMA86 · +9.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA86 · +5.6%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +34.7%
6M RS vs SPY94 · +25.1%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 39d ago
WATCHConfidence: 42%
Thesis
CVS Health Corporation is currently trading at a significant discount with an estimated fair value 57% above its current price, supported by a strong narrative score. However, the company's fundamentals are weak, with returns trailing its cost of capital and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating the company is not generating sufficient returns to cover its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.00%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,270$13,471$11,888$16,457$18,904$20,785$18,302$15,305$10,902$9,925$12,365$10,906$10,273$7,767$8,701$7,728$6,784$6,583$6,127$5,035$3,511

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CVS Health Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CVS Health Corp.Healthcare

CVS Health Corp. is a health solutions company, which engages in the provision of healthcare services. It operates through the following segments: Health Care Benefits, Health Services, Pharmacy and Consumer Wellness, and Corporate and Other. The Health Care Benefits segment operates as a health care benefits provider. The Health Services segment offers a full range of PBM solutions, delivers health care services in its medical clinics, virtually, and in the home. The Pharmacy & Consumer Wellness segment dispenses prescriptions in its retail pharmacies and through its infusion operations. The Corporate and Other Segment is involved in management and administrative expenses. The company was founded by Stanley P. Goldstein and Ralph Hoagland in 1963 and is headquartered in Woonsocket, RI.