Market Pulse59Neutral

Carvana Co.Opportunity Rank #67(CVNA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$400.22

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$400.22
Price
$124.00
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 69%MOS: $99.20

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

62/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Carvana Co. (CVNA) is estimated at $124.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $400.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.81% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 12.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Carvana Co. (CVNA) is estimated at $124.00 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $400.22, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.81% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 12.60%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$124.00
▼ -69.02% downside
20% margin of safety: $99.20
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.81%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-8.45%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
69.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -8.4% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
321.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (96th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 97%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 131 (103 News · 28 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
88 news sentiment+2.0
4 earnings beat+0.8
7 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
Analyst downgrades-0.0
Macro headwinds-0.0
2 downgrade headlines+0.0

Trend Details

62/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+17.0%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-10.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.9%
Price vs 21 EMA64 · +2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA77 · +6.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA78 · +3.9%
3M RS vs SPY15 · -10.3%
6M RS vs SPY87 · +17.0%
Distance from 52W High63 · -18.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Carvana Co. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 68.7% above the estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative but weak fundamentals. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating operational inefficiencies despite positive cash flow growth and buybacks.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which could further erode shareholder value if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 43.64%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 399.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$1,082$1,183$1,009$890-$812-$2,037-$248-$527-$271-$121-$201-$40-$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Carvana Co.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Carvana Co.Consumer Cyclical

Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company offers vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. It also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.