Market Pulse50Neutral

Carvana Co.Opportunity Rank #260(CVNA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$299.60

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$299.60
Price
$85.06
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 72%MOS: $68.05

Fundamental Score

33/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

59/100
Improving

+6 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Carvana Co. (CVNA) is estimated at $85.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $299.60, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 12.81%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Carvana Co. (CVNA) is estimated at $85.06 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $299.60, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.24% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 12.81%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$85.06
▼ -71.61% downside
20% margin of safety: $68.05
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-12.7%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

33/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
71.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -12.7% vs WACC 11.0% (-1.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
327.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

59/100
Improving
+6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (85th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 173 (154 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
114 news sentiment+0.9
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Macro headwinds-0.5
Earnings miss-0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Carvana Co. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 70% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a low free cash flow yield. The company’s returns are below its cost of capital, indicating poor value creation for shareholders.
Key Risk
Continued deterioration in return on invested capital relative to the weighted average cost of capital could further impair Carvana’s financial health and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 41.70%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 403.03%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$1,183$1,183$1,009$890-$812-$2,037-$248-$527-$271-$121-$201-$40-$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Carvana Co.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Carvana Co.Consumer Cyclical

Carvana Co., together with its subsidiaries, operates an e-commerce platform for buying and selling used cars in the United States. The company offers vehicle acquisition, inspection and reconditioning, online search and shopping experience, financing, complementary products, logistics network and distinctive fulfillment experience, and post-sale customer support services. It also operates auction sites. Carvana Co. was founded in 2012 and is based in Tempe, Arizona.