Market Pulse57Neutral

Carvana Co.Opportunity Rank #271(CVNA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$70.39

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$70.39
Price
$24.71
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 65%MOS: $19.77

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

+4 vs previous

Trend Score

40/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Carvana Co. (CVNA) is estimated at $24.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $70.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.75% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 12.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Carvana Co. (CVNA) is estimated at $24.71 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $70.39, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.75% long-term growth rate and a 12.50% discount rate (calculated: 12.66%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$24.71
▼ -64.90% downside
20% margin of safety: $19.77
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.75%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-8.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
64.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.4% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -8.9% vs WACC 11.0% (-0.8x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
321.6% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
+4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (84th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 13h ago
Sources: 81 (62 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
55 news sentiment+1.0
5 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
Earnings beat-0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
19 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

40/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-32.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-11.6%
Price vs 21 EMA+4.7%
Price vs 21 EMA76 · +4.7%
Price vs 50 EMA64 · +3.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA37 · -1.6%
3M RS vs SPY13 · -11.6%
6M RS vs SPY3 · -32.3%
Distance from 52W High47 · -26.4%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Carvana Co. is significantly overvalued with its current price trading 62.7% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a negative return spread versus its cost of capital. Despite some improvement in narrative sentiment, the company's free cash flow yield remains thin at 1.5%, indicating limited financial strength.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the sustained negative spread between Carvana's return on invested capital and its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to erode shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor if the stock price declines to at least a mid-teens discount to the estimated fair value.
  • Track improvements in the ROIC versus WACC spread for signs of operational turnaround.
  • Follow narrative trends for meaningful shifts that could indicate a change in the company's outlook.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 43.64%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 399.84%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017201620152014
$1,082$1,183$1,009$890-$812-$2,037-$248-$527-$271-$121-$201-$40-$26

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Carvana Co.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Carvana Co.Consumer Cyclical

Carvana Co., along with its subsidiaries, operates a digital platform facilitating the purchase and sale of pre-owned vehicles across the United States. Their comprehensive services span the entire customer journey, including sourcing and reconditioning automobiles, providing an intuitive online browsing and transaction experience, offering financing solutions, and supplying complementary products. The company also manages its own specialized logistics network for distinctive delivery and pickup options, alongside providing extensive post-sale support. Furthermore, Carvana operates various vehicle auction sites. This company was established in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in Tempe, Arizona.