Market Pulse59Neutral

CSX CorporationOpportunity Rank #55(CSX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$44.46

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$44.46
Price
$32.94
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 26%MOS: $26.35

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

+3 vs previous

Trend Score

74/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX) is estimated at $32.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.77% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CSX Corporation (CSX) is estimated at $32.94 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.46, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 2.36% long-term growth rate and an 8.77% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$32.94
-25.91% downside
20% margin of safety: $26.35
Years: 10Growth Rate: 2.36%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.94%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
25.9% premium to price
7
FCF Yield
6.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
15
Net Debt / FCF
3.5x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-1.4% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (100th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 46 (29 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 upgrade headlines+0.9
22 news sentiment+0.7
2 earnings beat+0.1
3 analyst downgrades-0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Demand slowdown-0.1

Trend Details

74/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-2.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+18.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.8%
Price vs 21 EMA60 · +1.6%
Price vs 50 EMA74 · +5.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA77 · +3.8%
3M RS vs SPY65 · +3.6%
6M RS vs SPY88 · +18.1%
Distance from 52W High94 · -2.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 71%
Thesis
CSX Corporation is currently overvalued by approximately 25% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a supportive and improving narrative. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC and declining free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's fundamental weaknesses persist or worsen, preventing any recovery in valuation or returns on capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 2.36%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -3.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,131$7,515$7,776$7,771$7,752$6,890$5,889$6,507$6,386$5,512$5,439$5,932$5,792$5,580$5,287$5,788$5,071$3,507$4,654$3,957$3,697

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CSX Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CSX CorporationIndustrials

CSX Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, provides rail-based freight transportation services. The company offers rail services; and transportation of intermodal containers and trailers, as well as other transportation services, such as rail-to-truck transfers and bulk commodity operations. It transports chemicals, agricultural and food products, automotive, minerals, forest products, fertilizers, and metals and equipment; and coal, coke, and iron ore to electricity-generating power plants, steel manufacturers, and industrial plants, as well as exports coal to deep-water port facilities. The company also offers intermodal transportation services through a network of approximately 30 terminals transporting manufactured consumer goods in containers; and drayage services, including the pickup and delivery of intermodal shipments. It serves the automotive industry with distribution centers and storage locations, as well as connects non-rail served customers through transferring products, such as plastics and ethanol from rail to trucks. The company operates approximately 19,500 route mile rail network, which serves various population centers in 23 states east of the Mississippi River, the District of Columbia, and the Canadian provinces of Ontario and Quebec, as well as owns and leases approximately 3,500 locomotives. It also serves production and distribution facilities through track connections. CSX Corporation was incorporated in 1978 and is headquartered in Jacksonville, Florida.

CSX Corporation (CSX) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq