Market Pulse50Neutral

Capital Senior Living CorporationOpportunity Rank #287(CSU) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Healthcare

Current Price

$33.54

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$33.54
Price
$1.28
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 96%MOS: $1.02

Fundamental Score

23/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Capital Senior Living Corporation (CSU) is estimated at $1.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.76% long-term growth rate and an 11.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Capital Senior Living Corporation (CSU) is estimated at $1.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.54, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.76% long-term growth rate and an 11.18% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$1.28
-96.18% downside
20% margin of safety: $1.02
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.76%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-0.39%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

23/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
96.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
25.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -0.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.0x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
11.8x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-5.5% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (3rd pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 41%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 6 (6 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
4 news sentiment+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Legal risk+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
Capital Senior Living Corporation is significantly overvalued with a current price nearly 93% above its estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company faces elevated leverage and declining free cash flow growth, indicating substantial financial distress.
Key Risk
Continued financial deterioration and inability to improve returns on invested capital relative to its cost of capital could further depress valuation and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.77%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.20%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006200520042003
$58$58$23$9$26$59$96$115$91$65$56$59$25$26$28$23$21$2$5$7$4

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Capital Senior Living Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Capital Senior Living CorporationHealthcare

Capital Senior Living Corporation develops, owns, operates, and manages senior housing communities in the United States. The company provides independent living services, which include daily meals, transportation, social and recreational activities, laundry, housekeeping, and 24-hour staffing; and access to health screenings, periodic special services, and dietary and similar programs, as well as exercise and fitness classes. It also offers assisted living services consist of personal care services, such as assistance with activities of daily living, including ambulation, bathing, dressing, eating, grooming, personal hygiene, and monitoring or assistance with medications; support services, including meals, assistance with social and recreational activities, laundry, general housekeeping, maintenance, and transportation services; and supplemental services, which include extra transportation, personal maintenance, and extra laundry, as well as special care services for residents with various forms of dementia. In addition, the company provides memory care services; and home care services through third-party providers. As of December 31, 2019, it operated 126 senior housing communities in 23 states with an aggregate capacity of approximately 16,000 residents, including 80 owned and 46 leased senior housing communities. Capital Senior Living Corporation was founded in 1990 and is headquartered in Dallas, Texas.