Market Pulse58Neutral

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #167(CRWD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$198.40

Last updated: Jul 10, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$198.40
Price
$43.73
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 78%MOS: $34.98

Fundamental Score

47/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

78/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

97/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-09

The intrinsic value of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) is estimated at $43.73 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $198.40, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.51% long-term growth rate and a 9.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) is estimated at $43.73 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $198.40, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.51% long-term growth rate and a 9.72% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$43.73
▼ -77.96% downside
20% margin of safety: $34.98
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.51%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.28%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

47/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
78.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.1% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.3% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
35
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
39.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

78/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (22nd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 255 (200 News · 55 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
97 regulatory scrutiny+2.0
94 news sentiment+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.3
Demand slowdown+0.2
5 earnings beat-0.1
Legal risk-0.0

Trend Details

97/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-09309 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+74.9%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+64.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-0.5%
Price vs 21 EMA90 · +9.2%
Price vs 50 EMA98 · +21.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA97 · +10.9%
3M RS vs SPY100 · +74.9%
6M RS vs SPY100 · +64.5%
Distance from 52W High99 · -0.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 29d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 68.6% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a supportive narrative score, the company's free cash flow yield is thin at 1.3%, indicating limited financial flexibility.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 23.29%5 Year CAGR: 39.06%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$2,186$1,696$1,403$1,207$708$420$187$20-$29-$39

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Technology

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. delivers cloud-native cybersecurity solutions. Its comprehensive suite safeguards endpoints, cloud workloads, user identities, and critical data. The company's offerings span a wide range, including threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, proactive threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management capabilities. CrowdStrike primarily generates revenue through subscription sales of its flagship Falcon platform and its array of cloud modules. These offerings are distributed globally via a direct sales force, augmented by an extensive network of channel partners. Established in 2011, the company is headquartered in Austin, Texas.