Market Pulse50Neutral

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #194(CRWD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$413.31

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$413.31
Price
$213.09
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 48%MOS: $170.47

Fundamental Score

58/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

81/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) is estimated at $213.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $413.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.06% long-term growth rate and a 9.34% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. (CRWD) is estimated at $213.09 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $413.31, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.06% long-term growth rate and a 9.34% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$213.09
▼ -48.44% downside
20% margin of safety: $170.47
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.06%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
94.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

58/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
48.4% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.9% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 94.9% vs WACC 9.0% (10.5x)
100
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
36.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

81/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (66th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 234 (200 News · 34 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
103 regulatory scrutiny+6.0
9 upgrade headlines+0.9
78 news sentiment+0.8
5 earnings beat+0.4
2 legal risk+0.2
4 analyst upgrades+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. is currently trading at a significant premium with its price over 50% above estimated fair value, despite strong fundamentals including a high ROIC well above its cost of capital and an improving narrative score. The company's financial health and growth prospects remain constructive, supported by a stable and improving narrative trend.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the stock price may not correct to a more reasonable valuation level, maintaining an unsustainable premium that could lead to downside pressure.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for the stock price to move to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Confirm that ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital in upcoming quarters.
  • Monitor the narrative score for any meaningful shifts indicating changes in company outlook or market perception.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 22.92%5 Year CAGR: 36.40%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$1,985$1,696$1,403$1,207$708$420$187$20-$29-$39

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc.Technology

CrowdStrike Holdings, Inc. provides cloud-delivered protection across endpoints and cloud workloads, identity, and data. It offers threat intelligence, managed security services, IT operations management, threat hunting, Zero Trust identity protection, and log management. The company primarily sells subscriptions to its Falcon platform and cloud modules through its direct sales team that leverages its network of channel partners. It serves customers worldwide. The company was incorporated in 2011 and is based in Austin, Texas.