Market Pulse50Neutral

Crocs, Inc.Opportunity Rank #94(CROX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$79.69

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$79.69
Price
$187.37
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 135%MOS: $149.90

Fundamental Score

70/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Crocs, Inc. (CROX) is estimated at $187.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.69, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.88% long-term growth rate and an 11.58% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Crocs, Inc. (CROX) is estimated at $187.37 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.69, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.88% long-term growth rate and an 11.58% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$187.37
▲ 135.12% upside
20% margin of safety: $149.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.88%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.79%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

70/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
135.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
18.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.8% vs WACC 10.0% (0.2x)
9
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
47
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (44th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 44m ago
Sources: 76 (69 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
48 news sentiment+0.9
3 upgrade headlines+0.3
13 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
Crocs, Inc. is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 146% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including high free cash flow yield and robust buybacks. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, the company's stable narrative and bullish fundamental score suggest attractive growth potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is Crocs' return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly trailing its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), indicating potential value destruction if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.88%5 Year CAGR: 4.10%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$762$762$1,062$1,046$707$623$309$127$126$111$62$28$45$152$189$184$149$88$139$83$41

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Crocs, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Crocs, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Crocs, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, designs, develops, manufactures, markets, and distributes casual lifestyle footwear and accessories for men, women, and children. It offers various footwear products, including clogs, sandals, slides, flip-flops, boots, flats, wedges, platforms, socks, shoe charms, loafers, sneakers, and slippers under the Crocs brand name. The company sells its products in approximately 85 countries through wholesalers, retail stores, e-commerce sites, and third-party marketplaces. As of December 31, 2021, it had 193 outlet stores, 107 retail stores, 373 company-operated stores, 73 kiosks and store-in-stores, and 14 company-operated e-commerce sites. The company serves in the Americas, the Asia Pacific, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. Crocs, Inc. was founded in 1999 and is headquartered in Broomfield, Colorado.