Market Pulse50Neutral

Critical Metals Corp.Opportunity Rank #330(CRML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$8.26

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$8.26
Price
$0.68
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 92%MOS: $0.54

Fundamental Score

5/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is estimated at $0.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.26, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.19% long-term growth rate and a 10.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is estimated at $0.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $8.26, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -43.19% long-term growth rate and a 10.46% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.68
▼ -91.77% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: -43.19%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-11.14%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

5/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
91.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-1.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -11.1% vs WACC 9.0% (-1.2x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
6.0x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Low (7th pct)Weighted across 2 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 73%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 34 (34 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 news sentiment+0.1
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.1

Investment Coach

Updated 16h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Critical Metals Corp. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 91% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company's elevated leverage and poor ROIC versus WACC spread further undermine its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's financial performance and valuation may deteriorate further, exacerbating losses for investors.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -43.18%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -42.64%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$13-$13-$14$3$5$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Critical Metals Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Critical Metals Corp.Basic Materials

Critical Metals Corp. operates as a mining exploration and development company. It explores for lithium and rear earth element deposits. The company is based in New York, New York. Critical Metals Corp. is a subsidiary of European Lithium Limited.