Market Pulse53Neutral

Critical Metals Corp.Opportunity Rank #324(CRML) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$6.11

Last updated: Jul 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$6.11
Price
$0.48
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 92%MOS: $0.38

Fundamental Score

6/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

5/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-24

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The intrinsic value of Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is estimated at $0.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.72% long-term growth rate and an 11.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Critical Metals Corp. (CRML) is estimated at $0.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $6.11, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -47.72% long-term growth rate and an 11.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$0.48
▼ -92.14% downside
20% margin of safety: $0.38
Years: 10Growth Rate: -47.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
-13.61%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

6/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
92.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-5.2% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC -13.6% vs WACC 9.0% (-1.5x)
0
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
9
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 53%Updated: 1d ago
Sources: 16 (16 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
14 news sentiment+0.4
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Regulatory scrutiny+0.0

Trend Details

5/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-24310 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-80.6%
Price vs 50 EMA-35.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-75.8%
Price vs 21 EMA0 · -24.4%
Price vs 50 EMA0 · -35.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA1 · -14.1%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -49.7%
6M RS vs SPY0 · -75.8%
Distance from 52W High0 · -80.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 45d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 90%
Thesis
Critical Metals Corp. is significantly overvalued with an estimated fair value 92% below its current price, supported by weak fundamentals and negative returns relative to its cost of capital. The company's elevated leverage and poor ROIC versus WACC spread further undermine its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's continued inability to generate returns above its cost of capital, which could exacerbate financial distress given its high leverage.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -47.72%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -50.15%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
-$30-$13-$14$3$5$2

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Critical Metals Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Critical Metals Corp.Basic Materials

Critical Metals Corp. is a mining company dedicated to the exploration and development of mineral resources. The firm's primary focus is on locating and developing deposits of crucial materials like lithium and rare earth elements. Based in New York, New York, Critical Metals Corp. operates as a subsidiary of European Lithium Limited.