Market Pulse57Neutral

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Opportunity Rank #115(CP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$91.35

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$91.35
Price
$105.67
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 16%MOS: $84.54

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

55/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

72/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $105.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $91.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $105.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $91.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.26% long-term growth rate and an 8.68% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$105.67
▲ 15.68% upside
20% margin of safety: $84.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.02%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
15.7% discount to price
76
FCF Yield
7.2% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.9x net debt to FCF
2
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
90
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

55/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (45th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 74%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 29 (20 News · 9 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
17 news sentiment+0.2
9 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

72/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High0.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+19.3%
Price vs 50 EMA+4.6%
Price vs 21 EMA68 · +3.0%
Price vs 50 EMA71 · +4.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA62 · +1.5%
3M RS vs SPY61 · +2.6%
6M RS vs SPY90 · +19.3%
Distance from 52W High100 · 0.0%

Investment Coach

Updating... 33d ago
WATCHConfidence: 46%
Thesis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. shows a constructive fundamental profile with a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.4% and a valuation implying a 19.4% upside. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in value creation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may limit long-term value generation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.26%5 Year CAGR: 9.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$5,847$6,013$5,788$4,723$4,056$3,715$3,184$3,300$3,034$2,507$2,328$2,833$2,542$2,268$1,762$1,150$874$851$1,403$1,571$1,313

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Industrials

Specializing in railway freight transportation, Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. operates an extensive rail network connecting Canada, the United States, and Mexico. The company, headquartered in Calgary, Canada, began its operations on June 22, 2001.