Market Pulse50Neutral

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Opportunity Rank #130(CP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$79.46

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$79.46
Price
$114.29
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 44%MOS: $91.43

Fundamental Score

60/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $114.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.28% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $114.29 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $79.46, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.28% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 8.45%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$114.29
▲ 43.83% upside
20% margin of safety: $91.43
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.28%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

60/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
43.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.9% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.7x net debt to FCF
8
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
93
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (49th pct)Weighted across 3 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 49 (46 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
32 news sentiment+0.6
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.5
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 47% above the current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to cost of capital, the company shows potential for value appreciation given its strong free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital significantly trailing its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction if not improved.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.28%5 Year CAGR: 10.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,148$6,148$5,918$4,829$4,147$3,799$3,255$3,374$3,102$2,563$2,380$2,897$2,599$2,318$1,802$1,176$894$870$1,435$1,607$1,342

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Industrials

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. engages in the provision of rail freight transportation services. It offers rail services linking Canada, the United States and Mexico. The company was founded on June 22, 2001, and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.