Market Pulse59Neutral

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Opportunity Rank #45(CP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$85.22

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$85.22
Price
$107.41
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 26%MOS: $85.93

Fundamental Score

65/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

65/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

68/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $107.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $85.22, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.26% long-term growth rate and a 9.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. (CP) is estimated at $107.41 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $85.22, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.26% long-term growth rate and a 9.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$107.41
▲ 26.04% upside
20% margin of safety: $85.93
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.26%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.02%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

65/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
26.0% discount to price
93
FCF Yield
8.0% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.2x)
11
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
27
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
90
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

65/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (86th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 95%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 41 (35 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
2 upgrade headlines+0.9
24 news sentiment+0.4
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat+0.0
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

68/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-3.7%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+13.4%
Price vs 50 EMA+4.4%
Price vs 21 EMA64 · +2.3%
Price vs 50 EMA70 · +4.4%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA66 · +2.0%
3M RS vs SPY51 · +0.2%
6M RS vs SPY82 · +13.4%
Distance from 52W High93 · -3.7%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 61%
Thesis
Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 28.7% above its current price, supported by constructive fundamentals and a strong, improving narrative. Despite trailing returns relative to the cost of capital, the company's free cash flow growth and buyback activity indicate potential for value appreciation.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) significantly trailing its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), which may pressure future profitability and valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.26%5 Year CAGR: 9.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$6,014$6,186$5,954$4,858$4,172$3,822$3,275$3,395$3,121$2,579$2,395$2,915$2,615$2,333$1,813$1,183$899$875$1,443$1,616$1,351

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd.Industrials

Canadian Pacific Kansas City Ltd. engages in the provision of rail freight transportation services. It offers rail services linking Canada, the United States and Mexico. The company was founded on June 22, 2001, and is headquartered in Calgary, Canada.