Market Pulse50Neutral

Costco Wholesale CorporationOpportunity Rank #137(COST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$965.73

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$965.73
Price
$918.84
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 5%MOS: $735.07

Fundamental Score

66/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is estimated at $918.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $965.73, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is estimated at $918.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $965.73, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.61% long-term growth rate and an 8.89% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$918.84
-4.86% downside
20% margin of safety: $735.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.61%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.39%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

66/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.9% premium to price
42
FCF Yield
4.9% trailing FCF yield
72
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.4% vs WACC 10.0% (1.1x)
57
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
87
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (60th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 44m ago
Sources: 217 (200 News · 17 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
148 news sentiment+3.5
41 regulatory scrutiny+0.8
6 legal risk-0.6
4 earnings beat+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 52%
Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation presents a constructive fundamental profile with a bullish score of 66 and an improving narrative score of 80, supported by a net cash balance sheet and a return on invested capital (ROIC) above its weighted average cost of capital (WACC). Although the current price slightly exceeds fair value, the company's stable narrative and strong free cash flow growth suggest patient accumulation is warranted.
Key Risk
A key risk is that Costco's ROIC may fall below its cost of capital in upcoming quarters, undermining its fundamental attractiveness.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains consistently above the cost of capital.
  • Narrative score shows meaningful shifts in trend direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.61%5 Year CAGR: 10.77%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$20,923$18,833$16,049$15,391$11,283$12,546$11,671$9,354$8,743$9,228$5,941$6,678$5,977$5,520$4,537$4,488$3,835$3,342$3,775$3,462$3,040

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Costco Wholesale CorporationConsumer Defensive

Costco Wholesale Corporation, together with its subsidiaries, engages in the operation of membership warehouses in the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. It offers branded and private-label products in a range of merchandise categories. The company offers sundries, dry groceries, candies, coolers, freezers, liquor, and tobacco and deli products; appliances, electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio products, sporting goods, tires, toys and seasonal products, office supplies, automotive care products, postages, tickets, apparel, small appliances, furniture, domestics, housewares, special order kiosks, and jewelry; and meat, produce, service deli, and bakery products. It also operates pharmacies, opticals, food courts, hearing-aid centers, and tire installation centers, as well as 636 gas stations; and offers business delivery, travel, same-day grocery, and various other services online in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, the company operated 815 membership warehouses, including 564 in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, 1 in Iceland, 1 in France, and 1 in China. It also operates e-commerce websites in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. The company was formerly known as Costco Companies, Inc. and changed its name to Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Costco Wholesale Corporation was founded in 1976 and is based in Issaquah, Washington.