Market Pulse44Neutral

Costco Wholesale CorporationOpportunity Rank #164(COST) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$951.35

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$951.35
Price
$997.17
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 5%MOS: $797.74

Fundamental Score

73/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

35/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is estimated at $997.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $951.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.62% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) is estimated at $997.17 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $951.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.62% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$997.17
4.82% upside
20% margin of safety: $797.74
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.62%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
11.56%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

73/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
4.8% discount to price
58
FCF Yield
5.0% trailing FCF yield
76
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 11.6% vs WACC 10.0% (1.2x)
58
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.7% 5Y FCF CAGR
88
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 213 (200 News · 13 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
184 news sentiment+2.5
2 upgrade headlines+0.6
3 earnings beat+0.1
2 legal risk-0.1
7 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
Promotions/discounting+0.0

Trend Details

35/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.9%
Distance from 52-Week High-13.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-4.0%
Price vs 21 EMA32 · -3.0%
Price vs 50 EMA31 · -4.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA41 · -1.1%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.9%
6M RS vs SPY48 · -0.6%
Distance from 52W High74 · -13.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 60%
Thesis
Costco Wholesale Corporation exhibits strong fundamentals with a bullish score of 72 and a supportive narrative score of 80, underpinned by a net cash balance sheet and consistent free cash flow growth. Its valuation is near fair value, suggesting a patient buy approach to capture modest upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the return on invested capital (ROIC) may fall below the weighted average cost of capital (WACC), eroding value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • ROIC remains above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Narrative trend shows meaningful shifts in score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.62%5 Year CAGR: 11.06%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$21,194$18,833$16,049$15,391$11,283$12,546$11,671$9,354$8,743$9,228$5,941$6,678$5,977$5,520$4,537$4,488$3,835$3,342$3,775$3,462$3,040

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Costco Wholesale Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Costco Wholesale CorporationConsumer Defensive

Costco Wholesale Corporation, alongside its group entities, operates membership-based retail warehouses across a broad international scope, spanning the United States, Puerto Rico, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, Japan, South Korea, Australia, Spain, France, Iceland, China, and Taiwan. These outlets provide customers with an extensive array of both well-known branded and proprietary private-label products. Their vast inventory includes household staples, shelf-stable groceries, confectionery, chilled and frozen items, alcoholic beverages, tobacco, and deli selections. Furthermore, the stores stock major appliances, consumer electronics, health and beauty aids, hardware, garden and patio furniture, sporting goods, vehicle tires, toys, seasonal merchandise, office supplies, automotive maintenance products, postage services, event tickets, apparel, small kitchen appliances, home furnishings, domestic textiles, kitchenware, custom-order kiosks, and fine jewelry. Fresh departments offer meat, produce, a service deli, and bakery items. Beyond retail goods, Costco provides in-store amenities such as pharmacies, optical clinics, food courts, hearing aid centers, and tire installation facilities, in addition to managing 636 gas stations. The company also extends its offerings online through business delivery, travel booking, and same-day grocery fulfillment in various countries. As of August 29, 2021, Costco maintained a global network of 815 membership warehouses, with 564 located in the United States and Puerto Rico, 105 in Canada, 39 in Mexico, 30 in Japan, 29 in the United Kingdom, 16 in South Korea, 14 in Taiwan, 12 in Australia, 3 in Spain, and one each in Iceland, France, and China. Digital storefronts facilitate e-commerce operations in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, Mexico, South Korea, Taiwan, Japan, and Australia. Founded in 1976, the enterprise was originally known as Costco Companies, Inc. before officially adopting the name Costco Wholesale Corporation in August 1999. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Issaquah, Washington.