Market Pulse50Neutral

ConocoPhillipsOpportunity Rank #55(COP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$127.19

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$127.19
Price
$206.48
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 62%MOS: $165.18

Fundamental Score

75/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

75/100
Strong

+3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $206.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.19, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of ConocoPhillips (COP) is estimated at $206.48 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $127.19, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -2.43% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.36%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$206.48
▲ 62.34% upside
20% margin of safety: $165.18
Years: 10Growth Rate: -2.43%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.56%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

75/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
62.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
14.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.6% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
19.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

75/100
Strong
+3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (100th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 126 (108 News · 18 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
79 news sentiment+1.8
23 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
2 earnings miss-0.0
3 analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 69%
Thesis
ConocoPhillips is undervalued with an estimated fair value 60.5% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a positive narrative trend. The company exhibits robust free cash flow growth and effective buybacks, indicating solid long-term value creation potential.
Key Risk
Returns on invested capital currently trail the weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained profitability.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -2.43%5 Year CAGR: 0.44%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$22,819$22,819$32,242$31,213$38,473$22,320$9,517$17,740$19,684$11,668$9,272$17,622$33,654$31,624$28,094$32,912$26,806$23,340$41,757$36,341$37,112

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates ConocoPhillips's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

ConocoPhillipsEnergy

ConocoPhillips explores for, produces, transports, and markets crude oil, bitumen, natural gas, liquefied natural gas (LNG), and natural gas liquids worldwide. It primarily engages in the conventional and tight oil reservoirs, shale gas, heavy oil, LNG, oil sands, and other production operations. The company's portfolio includes unconventional plays in North America; conventional assets in North America, Europe, Asia, and Australia; various LNG developments; oil sands assets in Canada; and an inventory of conventional and unconventional exploration prospects. ConocoPhillips was founded in 1917 and is headquartered in Houston, Texas.