Market Pulse50Neutral

Coinbase Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #223(COIN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$200.62

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$200.62
Price
$165.62
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 17%MOS: $132.50

Fundamental Score

39/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

70/100
Strong

-6 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is estimated at $165.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $200.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.76% long-term growth rate and a 10.79% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is estimated at $165.62 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $200.62, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.76% long-term growth rate and a 10.79% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$165.62
▼ -17.45% downside
20% margin of safety: $132.50
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.76%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.22%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

39/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
17.4% premium to price
21
FCF Yield
4.5% trailing FCF yield
62
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
29
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-2.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

70/100
Strong
-6 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 219 (200 News · 19 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
168 news sentiment+1.4
27 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
2 earnings miss-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 72%
Thesis
Coinbase Global, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 20% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a supportive and stable narrative score. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions and declining free cash flow growth, suggesting caution for investors.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Coinbase's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.76%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -5.81%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$2,426$2,426$2,557$923-$1,582$4,121$3,023-$40

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Coinbase Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Coinbase Global, Inc.Financial Services

Coinbase Global, Inc. provides financial infrastructure and technology for the cryptoeconomy in the United States and internationally. It offers the primary financial account in the cryptoeconomy for consumers; a marketplace with a pool of liquidity for transacting in crypto assets for institutions; and technology and services that enable developers to build crypto-based applications and securely accept crypto assets as payment. The company was founded in 2012 and is based in Wilmington, Delaware.