Market Pulse58Neutral

Coinbase Global, Inc.Opportunity Rank #132(COIN) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$158.44

Last updated: Jul 10, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$158.44
Price
$212.78
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 34%MOS: $170.22

Fundamental Score

59/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

20/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is estimated at $212.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $158.44, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.22% long-term growth rate and a 10.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Coinbase Global, Inc. (COIN) is estimated at $212.78 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $158.44, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 9.22% long-term growth rate and a 10.42% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$212.78
▲ 34.30% upside
20% margin of safety: $170.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 9.22%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.97%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

59/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
34.3% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
6.7% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.0% vs WACC 9.0% (0.4x)
22
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-0.8% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, FCF CAGR (5Y).

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (84th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 100%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 174 (153 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
134 news sentiment+2.2
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Earnings beat-0.0
Layoffs-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
2 earnings miss+0.0

Trend Details

20/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-62.1%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-44.8%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-16.9%
Price vs 21 EMA41 · -1.4%
Price vs 50 EMA20 · -6.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA14 · -5.3%
3M RS vs SPY6 · -16.9%
6M RS vs SPY1 · -44.8%
Distance from 52W High0 · -62.1%

Investment Coach

Updating... 29d ago
BUYConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Coinbase Global, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 40.6% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's buybacks and strong net debt position add to its investment appeal.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating value above its cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 9.22%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -4.18%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$2,792$2,426$2,557$923-$1,582$4,121$3,023-$40

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Coinbase Global, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Coinbase Global, Inc.Financial Services

Coinbase Global, Inc. delivers fundamental financial infrastructure and technological solutions to the expanding cryptoeconomy, operating across both the United States and international markets. The company provides a core financial gateway for individual consumers navigating the digital asset space. For institutional clients, it manages a dynamic trading venue that ensures abundant liquidity for cryptocurrency transactions. Moreover, Coinbase supplies developers with crucial technology and services, enabling them to build innovative crypto-based applications and seamlessly integrate secure digital asset payments. Founded in 2012, the firm is headquartered in Wilmington, Delaware.