Market Pulse50Neutral

Coherent, Inc.Opportunity Rank #284(COHR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$255.05

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$255.05
Price
$64.67
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 75%MOS: $51.74

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Coherent, Inc. (COHR) is estimated at $64.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $255.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.99% long-term growth rate and an 11.76% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Coherent, Inc. (COHR) is estimated at $64.67 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $255.05, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.99% long-term growth rate and an 11.76% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$64.67
▼ -74.64% downside
20% margin of safety: $51.74
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.99%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.26%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
74.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.2% trailing FCF yield
5
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.2x)
8
Net Debt / FCF
2.8x net debt to FCF
7
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (68th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 111 (96 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
78 news sentiment+2.6
12 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.4
3 earnings beat+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Coherent, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 73.5% above the estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite an improving narrative score, the company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the continued underperformance of returns relative to the weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.99%5 Year CAGR: 4.49%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$898$1,074$893$1,070$728$721$434$316$314$257$181$182$125$133$131$114$86$64$64$65$56

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Coherent, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Coherent, Inc.Technology

Coherent, Inc. provides lasers, laser-based technologies, and laser-based system solutions for a range of commercial, industrial, and scientific research applications. It operates in two segments, Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEM) Laser Sources and Industrial Lasers & Systems. The company designs, manufactures, markets, and services lasers, laser tools, precision optics, and related accessories; and laser measurement and control products. Its products are used for applications in microelectronics, materials processing, OEM components and instrumentation, and scientific research and government programs. The company markets its products through a direct sales force in the United States, as well as through direct sales personnel and independent representatives internationally. Coherent, Inc. was founded in 1966 and is headquartered in Santa Clara, California. As of July 1, 2022, Coherent, Inc. operates as a subsidiary of II-VI Incorporated.