Market Pulse59Neutral

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Opportunity Rank #84(CMG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$33.27

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$33.27
Price
$43.63
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 31%MOS: $34.90

Fundamental Score

93/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

82/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

23/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $43.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $43.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.03% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$43.63
▲ 31.14% upside
20% margin of safety: $34.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
16.05%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

93/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
31.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
6.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 16.1% vs WACC 10.0% (1.6x)
80
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

82/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (98th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 95%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 133 (118 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
89 news sentiment+2.7
3 upgrade headlines+0.4
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
19 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
2 earnings beat+0.1
2 macro headwinds+0.1

Trend Details

23/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-44.2%
Price vs 50 EMA-5.1%
Price vs 21 EMA32 · -2.9%
Price vs 50 EMA26 · -5.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA32 · -2.3%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -24.3%
6M RS vs SPY31 · -7.2%
Distance from 52W High12 · -44.2%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 34.9% above the current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding the cost of capital by 6.1 points and a robust narrative score. The company's strong free cash flow growth and effective buybacks further reinforce its bullish outlook.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital or if the valuation discount persists above 10%, undermining the investment thesis.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.24%5 Year CAGR: 11.03%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,910$2,780$2,699$2,344$1,802$1,725$1,037$1,056$909$684$608$941$935$729$617$562$402$378$351$287$201

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.