CMG

$38.45

Public overview and default valuation.

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Valuation Details
Default assumptions: 10Y forecast, 9% market return, 2.5% terminal growth, 6.62% trendline growth.
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$45.55

With 20% Margin of Safety (MoS):

$36.44
▼ -5.23% downside
Capital Efficiency
Average Quarterly ROIC
16.6%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.
Fundamental Score
75
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
5.2% premium to price
41
FCF Yield
5.5% trailing FCF yield
87
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 16.6% vs WACC 10.0% (1.7x)
83
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
47
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: FCF Yield, ROIC vs WACC.
Narrative Score
41
Weak
Weighted across 6 recent drivers · Last 30 daysVs 6-Month Baseline: Low (14th pct)
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 100%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 173 (News 149 · Analyst 24)
Drivers
111 news sentiment-0.8
Downgrade headlines-0.2
31 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Earnings beat-0.2
2 margin pressure+0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.1
Other Metrics
P/E32.9
Profit Margin12.9%
Owner Earnings$2.56b
One Dollar Premise0.00%
Debt/Equity1.80
Current Ratio1.48
PEG37.529
Free Cash Flow (in millions)
20062007200820092010201120122013201420152016201720182019202020212022202320242025
$201$287$351$378$402$562$617$729$935$941$608$684$909$1,056$1,037$1,725$1,802$2,344$2,699$2,780
How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.

Last updated: Feb 06, 2026
Data sources: Financial Modeling Prep
This valuation is based on assumptions and publicly available data. It is not financial advice or a recommendation to buy or sell any security. Always do your own research before making investment decisions.