Market Pulse50Neutral

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Opportunity Rank #44(CMG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$33.35

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$33.35
Price
$37.77
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 13%MOS: $30.22

Fundamental Score

83/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

77/100
Strong

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $37.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.21% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.12%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $37.77 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $33.35, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.21% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.12%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$37.77
▲ 13.25% upside
20% margin of safety: $30.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.21%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
16.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

83/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
13.3% discount to price
72
FCF Yield
6.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 16.6% vs WACC 10.0% (1.7x)
83
Net Debt / FCF
1.4x net debt to FCF
47
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
21.8% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

77/100
Strong
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:High (99th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 174 (148 News · 26 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
31 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
2 upgrade headlines+0.6
3 macro headwinds+0.6
105 news sentiment+0.5
Analyst upgrades+0.2
3 downgrade headlines-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
BUYConfidence: 80%
Thesis
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. presents a compelling buy opportunity with a strong fundamental score of 84 and a valuation implying a 16.7% upside. The company's ROIC significantly exceeds its cost of capital by 6.6 percentage points, supported by an improving narrative score of 74.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital, undermining the company's profitability advantage.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.21%5 Year CAGR: 10.02%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,780$2,780$2,699$2,344$1,802$1,725$1,037$1,056$909$684$608$941$935$729$617$562$402$378$351$287$201

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., together with its subsidiaries, owns and operates Chipotle Mexican Grill restaurants. As of February 15, 2022, it owned and operated approximately 3,000 restaurants in the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and rest of Europe. The company was founded in 1993 and is headquartered in Newport Beach, California.