Market Pulse63Bullish

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Opportunity Rank #38(CMG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$35.25

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$35.25
Price
$43.84
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 24%MOS: $35.07

Fundamental Score

91/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

68/100
Improving

+6 vs previous

Trend Score

48/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $43.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $35.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.83%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $43.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $35.25, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.83%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$43.84
▲ 24.37% upside
20% margin of safety: $35.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
16.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

91/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
24.4% discount to price
91
FCF Yield
6.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 16.1% vs WACC 10.0% (1.6x)
81
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

68/100
Improving
+6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (86th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Improving upConfidence: 91%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 76 (61 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
6 regulatory scrutiny+1.0
50 news sentiment+0.7
Promotions/discounting+0.0
Margin pressure-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Macro headwinds+0.0

Trend Details

48/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-18.8%
Price vs 21 EMA+6.0%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.1%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +6.0%
Price vs 50 EMA80 · +7.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA59 · +1.0%
3M RS vs SPY21 · -8.1%
6M RS vs SPY11 · -18.8%
Distance from 52W High25 · -37.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 48.2% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding cost of capital by 6.1 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%. The company's improving narrative trend and robust fundamental score of 93 further reinforce a bullish investment case.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital, undermining the company's profitability advantage.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.24%5 Year CAGR: 11.03%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,910$2,780$2,699$2,344$1,802$1,725$1,037$1,056$909$684$608$941$935$729$617$562$402$378$351$287$201

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq