Market Pulse44Neutral

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Opportunity Rank #75(CMG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$30.55

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$30.55
Price
$43.84
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 44%MOS: $35.07

Fundamental Score

93/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

17/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $43.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $30.55, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.86%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. (CMG) is estimated at $43.84 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $30.55, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.24% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.86%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$43.84
▲ 43.50% upside
20% margin of safety: $35.07
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.24%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
16.11%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusCreating Value

The company is earning a higher return on invested capital than it costs to raise that capital — a sign of strong, efficient value creation.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

93/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
43.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 16.1% vs WACC 10.0% (1.6x)
81
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
22.9% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (38th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 5h ago
Sources: 111 (96 News · 15 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
79 news sentiment+0.4
3 margin pressure-0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
2 macro headwinds+0.1
Downgrade headlines-0.1
2 analyst upgrades+0.1

Trend Details

17/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-23.3%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-28.3%
Distance from 52-Week High-47.6%
Price vs 21 EMA32 · -2.9%
Price vs 50 EMA25 · -5.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA29 · -2.6%
3M RS vs SPY2 · -23.3%
6M RS vs SPY4 · -28.3%
Distance from 52W High5 · -47.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 48.2% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a high ROIC exceeding cost of capital by 6.1 points and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%. The company's improving narrative trend and robust fundamental score of 93 further reinforce a bullish investment case.
Key Risk
A key risk is if the ROIC falls below the cost of capital, undermining the company's profitability advantage.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Confirm ROIC stays above cost of capital over coming quarters.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.24%5 Year CAGR: 11.03%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$2,910$2,780$2,699$2,344$1,802$1,725$1,037$1,056$909$684$608$941$935$729$617$562$402$378$351$287$201

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

Chipotle Mexican Grill, Inc., along with its affiliated companies, oversees the ownership and daily running of Chipotle Mexican Grill eateries. By February 15, 2022, its global presence included roughly 3,000 restaurant locations spread across the United States, Canada, the United Kingdom, France, Germany, and other parts of Europe. The company was established in 1993 and maintains its principal office in Newport Beach, California.