Market Pulse50Neutral

CME Group Inc.Opportunity Rank #222(CME) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$306.56

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$306.56
Price
$236.68
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 23%MOS: $189.34

Fundamental Score

45/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of CME Group Inc. (CME) is estimated at $236.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $306.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.94% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CME Group Inc. (CME) is estimated at $236.68 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $306.56, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.94% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$236.68
▼ -22.79% downside
20% margin of safety: $189.34
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.94%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.62%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

45/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
22.8% premium to price
12
FCF Yield
4.0% trailing FCF yield
49
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
67
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
+2 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 97 (89 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
46 news sentiment+0.5
39 regulatory scrutiny+0.4
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 66%
Thesis
CME Group Inc. is currently overvalued with its price approximately 21.6% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a strong balance sheet with net cash, the fundamentals and valuation suggest a bearish outlook.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital (ROIC) fails to improve relative to its weighted average cost of capital (WACC), prolonging value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.94%5 Year CAGR: 11.51%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,361$4,361$3,785$3,530$3,146$2,530$2,913$2,918$2,558$1,922$1,808$1,630$1,432$1,406$1,359$1,519$1,516$1,241$1,397$978$560

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CME Group Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CME Group Inc.Financial Services

CME Group Inc., together with its subsidiaries, operates contract markets for the trading of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. It offers futures and options products based on interest rates, equity indexes, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, as well as fixed income products. The company also provides clearing house services, including clearing, settling, and guaranteeing futures and options contracts, and cleared swaps products traded through its exchanges; and trade processing and risk mitigation services. In addition, the company offers a range of market data services, including real-time and historical data services. It serves professional traders, financial institutions, institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. The company was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. and changed its name to CME Group Inc. in July 2007. CME Group Inc. was founded in 1898 and is headquartered in Chicago, Illinois.