Market Pulse44Neutral

CME Group Inc.Opportunity Rank #229(CME) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$245.20

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$245.20
Price
$237.82
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 3%MOS: $190.26

Fundamental Score

52/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

14/100
Weak

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of CME Group Inc. (CME) is estimated at $237.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $245.20, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.97% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CME Group Inc. (CME) is estimated at $237.82 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $245.20, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.97% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.64%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$237.82
▼ -3.01% downside
20% margin of safety: $190.26
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.97%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.85%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

52/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
3.0% premium to price
45
FCF Yield
5.1% trailing FCF yield
77
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
0.2x net debt to FCF
96
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.1% 5Y FCF CAGR
71
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (32nd pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 85%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 77 (69 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
53 news sentiment+0.5
2 analyst upgrades+0.3
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Macro headwinds+0.1
6 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

14/100
WeakAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-35.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-21.3%
Price vs 50 EMA-11.1%
Price vs 21 EMA14 · -7.0%
Price vs 50 EMA9 · -11.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA18 · -4.4%
3M RS vs SPY0 · -35.0%
6M RS vs SPY9 · -21.3%
Distance from 52W High50 · -24.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 54%
Thesis
CME Group Inc. is currently trading near fair value with returns trailing its estimated cost of capital, suggesting limited upside potential. The company's fundamentals indicate a bearish outlook with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, favoring a patient approach.
Key Risk
The key risk is that CME fails to improve its return on invested capital relative to its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.97%5 Year CAGR: 12.27%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,512$4,361$3,785$3,530$3,146$2,530$2,913$2,918$2,558$1,922$1,808$1,630$1,432$1,406$1,359$1,519$1,516$1,241$1,397$978$560

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CME Group Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CME Group Inc.Financial Services

CME Group Inc., through its various subsidiaries, manages international marketplaces for the exchange of futures and options on futures contracts worldwide. Its extensive array of product offerings includes futures and options linked to a broad spectrum of underlying assets, such as interest rates, equity indices, foreign exchange, agricultural commodities, energy, and metals, alongside fixed-income products. The company additionally furnishes essential clearinghouse services, which entail the verification, settlement, and guarantee of futures, options, and cleared swap agreements traded across its venues. It also offers services for transaction processing and risk mitigation. Furthermore, the organization provides diverse market data services, encompassing both real-time and historical data feeds. Its wide-ranging client base consists of professional traders, financial institutions, both institutional and individual investors, corporations, manufacturers, producers, governments, and central banks. Founded in Chicago, Illinois, in 1898, the enterprise was formerly known as Chicago Mercantile Exchange Holdings Inc. before rebranding as CME Group Inc. in July 2007.