Market Pulse50Neutral

Celsius Holdings, Inc.Opportunity Rank #184(CELH) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$39.65

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$39.65
Price
$37.14
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 6%MOS: $29.71

Fundamental Score

55/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is estimated at $37.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.77%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Celsius Holdings, Inc. (CELH) is estimated at $37.14 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.65, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 8.68% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.77%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$37.14
-6.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $29.71
Years: 10Growth Rate: 8.68%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.29%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

55/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
6.3% premium to price
39
FCF Yield
3.9% trailing FCF yield
47
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.3% vs WACC 8.0% (0.5x)
27
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
86
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
151.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 79 (74 News · 5 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
59 news sentiment+1.2
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.1
Earnings miss-0.1
4 earnings beat+0.0
Restructuring+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
WATCHConfidence: 41%
Thesis
Celsius Holdings, Inc. shows constructive fundamentals and a supportive narrative, with valuation near fair value suggesting patience is warranted. However, returns are currently trailing the estimated cost of capital, indicating cautious monitoring is needed.
Key Risk
The key risk is the company's return on invested capital consistently underperforming its weighted average cost of capital, which could impair value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Watch for price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 8.68%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 245.17%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201020092008200720062005
$396$396$286$159$116-$93$4$1-$12-$8-$2-$1-$3-$2-$3-$14-$10-$5-$2-$10$

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Celsius Holdings, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Celsius Holdings, Inc.Consumer Defensive

Celsius Holdings, Inc. develops, processes, markets, distributes, and sells functional drinks and liquid supplements in North America, Europe, Asia, and internationally. It offers various carbonated and non-carbonated functional energy drinks under the CELSIUS Originals name; dietary supplement in carbonated flavors, including apple jack'd, orangesicle, inferno punch, cherry lime, blueberry pomegranate, strawberry dragon fruit, tangerine grapefruit, and jackfruit under the CELSIUS HEAT name; and branched-chain amino acids functional energy drink that fuels muscle recovery under the CELSIUS BCCA+ENERGY name. The company also provides CELSIUS On-the-Go, a powdered form of the active ingredients in functional energy drinks in individual On-The-Go packets and canisters; and sparkling grapefruit, cucumber lime, and orange pomegranate, as well as pineapple coconut, watermelon berry, and strawberries and cream non-carbonated functional energy drinks under the CELSIUS Sweetened. It distributes its products through direct-to-store delivery distributors and direct to retailers, including supermarkets, convenience stores, drug stores, nutritional stores, and mass merchants, as well as health clubs, spas, gyms, the military, and e-commerce websites. The company was formerly known as Vector Ventures, Inc. and changed its name to Celsius Holdings, Inc. in January 2007. Celsius Holdings, Inc. was founded in 2004 and is headquartered in Boca Raton, Florida.