Market Pulse59Neutral

Constellation Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #242(CEG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$311.28

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$311.28
Price
$99.93
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 68%MOS: $79.94

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

64/100
Improving

+6 vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is estimated at $99.93 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $311.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -13.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is estimated at $99.93 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $311.28, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -13.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.17% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$99.93
▼ -67.90% downside
20% margin of safety: $79.94
Years: 10Growth Rate: -13.45%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.59%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
67.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
7.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
25.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

64/100
Improving
+6 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (70th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 17h ago
Sources: 103 (89 News · 14 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
76 news sentiment+1.4
2 earnings beat+0.0
8 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
2 legal risk+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
14 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-25.3%
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+9.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+0.7%
Price vs 21 EMA48 · -0.3%
Price vs 50 EMA52 · +0.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA56 · +0.7%
3M RS vs SPY83 · +9.3%
6M RS vs SPY6 · -25.3%
Distance from 52W High50 · -24.8%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 64%
Thesis
Constellation Energy Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 92% above estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.4%. The company's fundamentals are neutral with a weak narrative trend, indicating limited near-term upside potential.
Key Risk
The key risk is the sustained negative spread between ROIC and WACC, which may continue to pressure returns below the cost of capital.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -13.45%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 490.77%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,186$7,186$101-$2,879-$664-$9$2,331$4,718$6,103$5,558$7,520$8,040$4,838$6,639$7,156

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Energy CorporationUtilities

Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.