Market Pulse50Neutral

Constellation Energy CorporationOpportunity Rank #211(CEG) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Utilities

Current Price

$289.76

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$289.76
Price
$101.91
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 65%MOS: $81.53

Fundamental Score

53/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is estimated at $101.91 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $289.76, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -13.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Constellation Energy Corporation (CEG) is estimated at $101.91 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $289.76, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -13.45% long-term growth rate and a 9.01% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$101.91
▼ -64.83% downside
20% margin of safety: $81.53
Years: 10Growth Rate: -13.45%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.59%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

53/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
64.8% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
7.9% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.6% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
16
Net Debt / FCF
0.7x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count flat
50
FCF CAGR (5Y)
25.3% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: FCF Yield, Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (69th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 100 (96 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
81 news sentiment+1.1
4 earnings beat+0.4
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.2
Upgrade headlines+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 57%
Thesis
Constellation Energy Corporation is currently overvalued by approximately 91%, with returns trailing its cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.9%. The company's improving narrative score suggests potential positive developments, but valuation concerns dominate the investment outlook.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -13.45%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 490.77%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$7,186$7,186$101-$2,879-$664-$9$2,331$4,718$6,103$5,558$7,520$8,040$4,838$6,639$7,156

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Constellation Energy Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Constellation Energy CorporationUtilities

Constellation Energy Corporation generates and sells electricity in the United States. The company operates through five segments: Mid-Atlantic, Midwest, New York, ERCOT, and Other Power Regions. It sells natural gas, renewable energy, and other energy-related products and services. The company has 32,400 megawatts of generating capacity consisting of nuclear, wind, solar, natural gas, and hydroelectric assets. It serves distribution utilities; municipalities; cooperatives; and commercial, industrial, governmental, and residential customers. The company was incorporated in 2021 and is headquartered in Baltimore, Maryland. Constellation Energy Corporation was formerly a subsidiary of Exelon Corporation.