Market Pulse59Neutral

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #206(CDNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$356.90

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$356.90
Price
$113.02
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 68%MOS: $90.42

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

67/100
Improving

No change vs previous

Trend Score

86/100
Strong

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is estimated at $113.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $356.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.26% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is estimated at $113.02 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $356.90, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.26% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$113.02
-68.33% downside
20% margin of safety: $90.42
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.66%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
68.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.8% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
31
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

67/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Above Avg (60th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 91%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 86 (70 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
51 news sentiment+1.6
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings miss-0.1
Macro headwinds-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
15 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

86/100
StrongAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+21.1%
Price vs 50 EMA+15.5%
Distance from 52-Week High-2.9%
Price vs 21 EMA91 · +9.8%
Price vs 50 EMA95 · +15.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA84 · +5.2%
3M RS vs SPY97 · +21.1%
6M RS vs SPY55 · +1.8%
Distance from 52W High94 · -2.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 81%
Thesis
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 67.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score and returns trailing its cost of capital. Despite a moderately supportive narrative score, the company's financial health and valuation metrics suggest caution.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's return on invested capital remaining below its weighted average cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.98%5 Year CAGR: 8.61%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,765$1,871$1,403$1,452$1,366$1,168$1,000$804$666$529$499$423$357$413$352$272$237$68$170$486$497

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.Technology

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. provides software, hardware, services, and reusable integrated circuit (IC) design blocks worldwide. The company offers functional verification services, including emulation and prototyping hardware. Its functional verification offering consists of JasperGold, a formal verification platform; Xcelium, a parallel logic simulation platform; Palladium, an enterprise emulation platform; and Protium, a prototyping platform for chip verification. The company also provides digital IC design and sign off products, including Genus logic synthesis and Joules RTL power solutions, as well as Modus software solution to reduce systems-on-chip design-for-test time; physical implementation tools, such as place and route, optimization, and multiple patterning preparation; and signoff products to signoff the design as ready for silicon manufacturing. In addition, it offers custom IC design and simulation products to create schematic and physical representations of circuits down to the transistor level for analog, mixed-signal, custom digital, memory, and radio frequency designs; and system design and analysis products to develop printed circuit boards and IC packages, as well as to analyze electromagnetic, electro-thermal, and other multi-physics effects. Further, the company provides intellectual property (IP) products comprising pre-verified and customizable functional blocks to integrate into customer's ICs; and verification IP and memory models to emulate and model the expected behavior and interaction of standard industry system interface protocols. Additionally, it offers services related to methodology, education, and hosted design solutions, as well as technical support and maintenance services. The company serves 5G communications, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial and healthcare, mobile, consumer, and hyperscale computing markets. Cadence Design Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.