Market Pulse44Neutral

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #235(CDNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$389.04

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$389.04
Price
$111.79
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 71%MOS: $89.43

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

+5 vs previous

Trend Score

82/100
Strong

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is estimated at $111.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $389.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is estimated at $111.79 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $389.04, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 5.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.33% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$111.79
-71.27% downside
20% margin of safety: $89.43
Years: 10Growth Rate: 5.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
5.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
71.3% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
1.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 5.7% vs WACC 9.0% (0.6x)
32
Net Debt / FCF
0.8x net debt to FCF
85
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
85
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
+5 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (57th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 91%Updated: 4h ago
Sources: 62 (51 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
46 news sentiment+1.1
4 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Earnings miss-0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

82/100
StrongAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+22.3%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+6.1%
Distance from 52-Week High-6.6%
Price vs 21 EMA60 · +1.6%
Price vs 50 EMA82 · +7.8%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA88 · +6.1%
3M RS vs SPY98 · +22.3%
6M RS vs SPY82 · +13.4%
Distance from 52W High87 · -6.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 89%
Thesis
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 70% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and a low free cash flow yield of 1.7%. The company's returns are trailing its cost of capital, indicating poor value creation.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's operational performance and returns on invested capital do not improve relative to its cost of capital, which could further depress valuation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend and score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 5.98%5 Year CAGR: 8.61%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,765$1,871$1,403$1,452$1,366$1,168$1,000$804$666$529$499$423$357$413$352$272$237$68$170$486$497

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.Technology

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. operates globally, delivering a comprehensive suite of solutions that includes software, specialized hardware, professional services, and pre-designed integrated circuit (IC) building blocks. The company's robust functional verification offerings feature dedicated emulation and prototyping hardware. This portfolio encompasses JasperGold for formal verification, Xcelium for parallel logic simulation, Palladium as an enterprise-grade emulation platform, and Protium, a prototyping platform designed for thorough chip verification. Cadence additionally provides extensive products for digital IC design and final sign-off. These include the Genus logic synthesis solution, Joules for RTL power analysis, and the Modus software solution, which streamlines design-for-test (DFT) processes for systems-on-chip. Their tools further extend to physical implementation, covering place and route, optimization, and multiple patterning preparation, alongside essential sign-off products for validating designs prior to silicon manufacturing. Moreover, the company furnishes custom IC design and simulation tools capable of generating both schematic and physical representations of circuits down to the transistor level. These tools support a wide array of applications, such as analog, mixed-signal, custom digital, memory, and radio frequency (RF) designs. Cadence also offers system design and analysis products crucial for developing printed circuit boards (PCBs) and integrated circuit packages, along with capabilities to analyze complex multi-physics effects like electromagnetic and electro-thermal interactions. Furthermore, Cadence supplies intellectual property (IP) products, consisting of pre-verified, customizable functional blocks ready for integration into customer ICs. This includes verification IP and memory models used to simulate and characterize the behavior and interactions of standard industry system interface protocols. Complementing its product portfolio, Cadence provides a range of services, including methodology consulting, educational programs, hosted design solutions, and ongoing technical support and maintenance. Its diverse clientele spans sectors such as 5G communications, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial and healthcare, mobile technology, consumer electronics, and hyperscale computing. Established in 1987, Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is headquartered in San Jose, California.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq