Market Pulse50Neutral

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.Opportunity Rank #229(CDNS) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$292.52

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$292.52
Price
$134.16
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 54%MOS: $107.33

Fundamental Score

46/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

58/100
Improving

-3 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is estimated at $134.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $292.52, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.02% long-term growth rate and an 8.95% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Cadence Design Systems, Inc. (CDNS) is estimated at $134.16 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $292.52, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 6.02% long-term growth rate and an 8.95% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$134.16
-54.14% downside
20% margin of safety: $107.33
Years: 10Growth Rate: 6.02%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.24%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

46/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
54.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.3% trailing FCF yield
9
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.2% vs WACC 9.0% (0.7x)
35
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
13.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
92
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

58/100
Improving
-3 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (16th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 93%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 81 (74 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 regulatory scrutiny+0.6
48 news sentiment+0.4
Macro headwinds-0.3
2 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Earnings miss+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 11h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 66%
Thesis
Cadence Design Systems, Inc. is currently overvalued with its stock price trading approximately 53% above the estimated fair value, and its returns are trailing the estimated cost of capital. Despite a strong balance sheet with net cash and ongoing buybacks, the fundamentals remain bearish with a negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns may fail to improve relative to its cost of capital, perpetuating valuation weakness.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 6.02%5 Year CAGR: 9.88%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$1,871$1,871$1,403$1,452$1,366$1,168$1,000$804$666$529$499$423$357$413$352$272$237$68$170$486$497

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Cadence Design Systems, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Cadence Design Systems, Inc.Technology

Cadence Design Systems, Inc. provides software, hardware, services, and reusable integrated circuit (IC) design blocks worldwide. The company offers functional verification services, including emulation and prototyping hardware. Its functional verification offering consists of JasperGold, a formal verification platform; Xcelium, a parallel logic simulation platform; Palladium, an enterprise emulation platform; and Protium, a prototyping platform for chip verification. The company also provides digital IC design and sign off products, including Genus logic synthesis and Joules RTL power solutions, as well as Modus software solution to reduce systems-on-chip design-for-test time; physical implementation tools, such as place and route, optimization, and multiple patterning preparation; and signoff products to signoff the design as ready for silicon manufacturing. In addition, it offers custom IC design and simulation products to create schematic and physical representations of circuits down to the transistor level for analog, mixed-signal, custom digital, memory, and radio frequency designs; and system design and analysis products to develop printed circuit boards and IC packages, as well as to analyze electromagnetic, electro-thermal, and other multi-physics effects. Further, the company provides intellectual property (IP) products comprising pre-verified and customizable functional blocks to integrate into customer's ICs; and verification IP and memory models to emulate and model the expected behavior and interaction of standard industry system interface protocols. Additionally, it offers services related to methodology, education, and hosted design solutions, as well as technical support and maintenance services. The company serves 5G communications, aerospace and defense, automotive, industrial and healthcare, mobile, consumer, and hyperscale computing markets. Cadence Design Systems, Inc. was incorporated in 1987 and is headquartered in San Jose, California.