Market Pulse50Neutral

CAVA Group, Inc.Opportunity Rank #243(CAVA) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$87.07

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$87.07
Price
$53.01
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 39%MOS: $42.41

Fundamental Score

29/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

63/100
Improving

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is estimated at $53.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.07, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.35% long-term growth rate and an 11.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CAVA Group, Inc. (CAVA) is estimated at $53.01 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $87.07, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.35% long-term growth rate and an 11.62% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$53.01
▼ -39.12% downside
20% margin of safety: $42.41
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.35%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.52%
Cost of Capital (estimated)8%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

29/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
39.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.4% trailing FCF yield
35
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.5% vs WACC 8.0% (0.6x)
28
Net Debt / FCF
0.5x net debt to FCF
89
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
0.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

63/100
Improving
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (57th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 2h ago
Sources: 81 (60 News · 21 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
48 news sentiment+1.1
4 earnings beat+0.1
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Analyst downgrades-0.0
2 downgrade headlines-0.0
20 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
CAVA Group, Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 36.5% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, suggesting limited upside potential. Despite an improving narrative, the company's ROIC remains below its WACC, indicating operational challenges.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that CAVA's return on invested capital continues to lag its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and fundamental score
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 32.80%5 Year CAGR: 41.86%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021
$344$344$269$236$110$60

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CAVA Group, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CAVA Group, Inc.Consumer Cyclical

CAVA Group, Inc. owns and operates a chain of Mediterranean restaurants. The company offers salads, dips, spreads, toppings, and dressings. It sells its products through whole food markets and grocery stores. The company also provides online food ordering services. Cava Group, Inc. was founded in 2006 and is based in Washington, District of Columbia.