Market Pulse50Neutral

Caterpillar Inc.Opportunity Rank #259(CAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$701.70

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$701.70
Price
$288.46
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 59%MOS: $230.77

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is estimated at $288.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $701.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.63% long-term growth rate and a 9.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is estimated at $288.46 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $701.70, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 1.63% long-term growth rate and a 9.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$288.46
-58.89% downside
20% margin of safety: $230.77
Years: 10Growth Rate: 1.63%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.42%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
58.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
4.0% trailing FCF yield
51
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.4x)
20
Net Debt / FCF
2.5x net debt to FCF
14
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
72
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (27th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 52m ago
Sources: 193 (193 News)
Drivers(last 30 days)
135 news sentiment+1.9
53 regulatory scrutiny+0.9
Upgrade headlines+0.1
Macro headwinds+0.0
Margin pressure+0.0
Earnings beat+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
Caterpillar Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price nearly 59% above the estimated fair value, supported by a weak fundamental score and returns trailing its cost of capital. However, the improving narrative score suggests potential positive shifts in the company's outlook.
Key Risk
The key risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 1.63%5 Year CAGR: 6.43%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$13,204$13,204$15,250$15,977$10,365$9,670$8,442$9,581$9,474$8,042$8,567$9,960$11,436$14,637$10,260$10,881$7,595$8,971$8,558$10,995$8,474

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Caterpillar Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Caterpillar Inc.Industrials

Caterpillar Inc. manufactures and sells construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and industrial gas turbines worldwide. Its Construction Industries segment offers asphalt pavers, backhoe loaders, compactors, cold planers, compact track and multi-terrain loaders, excavators, motorgraders, pipelayers, road reclaimers, site prep tractors, skid steer loaders, telehandlers, and utility vehicles; mini, small, medium, and large excavators; compact, small, and medium wheel loaders; track-type tractors and loaders; and wheel excavators. The Resource Industries segment provides electric rope shovels, draglines, hydraulic shovels, rotary drills, hard rock vehicles, track-type tractors, mining trucks, longwall miners, wheel loaders, off-highway trucks, articulated trucks, wheel tractor scrapers, wheel dozers, fleet management, landfill compactors, soil compactors, machinery components, autonomous ready vehicles and solutions, select work tools, and safety services and mining performance solutions. The Energy & Transportation segment offers reciprocating engines, generator sets, integrated systems and solutions, turbines and turbine-related services, remanufactured reciprocating engines and components, centrifugal gas compressors, diesel-electric locomotives and components, and other rail-related products and services for marine, oil and gas, industrial, and electric power generation sectors. The company's Financial Products segment provides operating and finance leases, installment sale contracts, working capital loans, and wholesale financing plans; and insurance and risk management products for vehicles, power generation facilities, and marine vessels. The All Other operating segment manufactures filters and fluids, undercarriage, ground engaging tools, etc. The company was formerly known as Caterpillar Tractor Co. and changed its name to Caterpillar Inc. in 1986. The company was founded in 1925 and is headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois.

Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq