Market Pulse44Neutral

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)Opportunity Rank #22(CART) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$44.27

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$44.27
Price
$115.04
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 160%MOS: $92.03

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

65/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is estimated at $115.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is estimated at $115.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $44.27, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.62%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$115.04
▲ 159.86% upside
20% margin of safety: $92.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
159.9% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
9.6% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
48
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
304.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (43rd pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 74%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 27 (21 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
16 news sentiment+0.3
2 promotions/discounting+0.1
2 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
Upgrade headlines-0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
5 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

65/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-13.9%
Price vs 50 EMA+7.5%
Price vs 21 EMA+5.2%
Price vs 21 EMA78 · +5.2%
Price vs 50 EMA81 · +7.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA67 · +2.2%
3M RS vs SPY70 · +5.1%
6M RS vs SPY18 · -13.9%
Distance from 52W High71 · -14.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Instacart (CART) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 193% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.3% and a net cash balance sheet. The company exhibits robust free cash flow growth and prudent buybacks, indicating solid financial health and potential for long-term value creation.
Key Risk
The slight negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a risk to sustained profitability and value generation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 88.56%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 311.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,000$1,033$751$642$303-$182-$84-$475

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)Consumer Cyclical

Maplebear Inc., known commercially as Instacart, delivers digital grocery and household item solutions to residences throughout North America. The service facilitates a connection between consumers and personal shoppers, who meticulously select and transport a diverse array of products. This extensive offering includes fresh produce, alcoholic beverages, health and wellness goods, pet provisions, and ready-made meals, among other essentials. Customers can access Instacart's platform via its dedicated mobile application or official website. The company was founded in 2012 and maintains its headquarters in San Francisco, California.