Market Pulse46Neutral

Maplebear Inc.Opportunity Rank #17(CART) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$48.39

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$48.39
Price
$115.04
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 138%MOS: $92.03

Fundamental Score

85/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

48/100
Weak

-4 vs previous

Trend Score

78/100
Strong

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of Maplebear Inc. (CART) is estimated at $115.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.39, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Maplebear Inc. (CART) is estimated at $115.04 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $48.39, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.78% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.21%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$115.04
▲ 137.74% upside
20% margin of safety: $92.03
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.78%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.67%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

85/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
137.7% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.8% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.7% vs WACC 7.0% (1.0x)
48
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
304.7% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

48/100
Weak
-4 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (5th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 69%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 20 (16 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
Regulatory scrutiny-0.3
14 news sentiment+0.1
Promotions/discounting+0.0
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

78/100
StrongAs of 2026-07-10309 daily bars used
Price vs 50 EMA+11.0%
Distance from 52-Week High-6.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+5.0%
Price vs 21 EMA80 · +5.7%
Price vs 50 EMA89 · +11.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA83 · +5.0%
3M RS vs SPY82 · +8.9%
6M RS vs SPY47 · -1.2%
Distance from 52W High87 · -6.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Instacart (CART) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 193% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.3% and a net cash balance sheet. The company exhibits robust free cash flow growth and prudent buybacks, indicating solid financial health and potential for long-term value creation.
Key Risk
The slight negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a risk to sustained profitability and value generation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 88.56%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 311.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,000$1,033$751$642$303-$182-$84-$475

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Maplebear Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Maplebear Inc.Technology

Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, operates as a technology and enablement partner for the grocery industry in the United States and internationally. The company offers Instacart Marketplace which helps retailers serve customers’ needs by supporting fulfillment options, shopping occasions, and categories; Instacart Enterprise platform, an end-to-end technology solution for retailers across all aspects of business; and Instacart Ads, enables brands to learn more about general consumer behavior from discovery to purchase, offering insights about how to optimize advertising spend. It also provides advertising solutions, including sponsored product ads, display ads, coupons, and brand pages; and software-as-a-service. The company’s services can be provided through company’s mobile application or website. Maplebear Inc., was incorporated in 2012 and is headquartered in San Francisco, California.