Market Pulse50Neutral

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)Opportunity Rank #26(CART) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$38.12

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$38.12
Price
$112.64
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 195%MOS: $90.11

Fundamental Score

84/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

52/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is estimated at $112.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.72% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.96%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) (CART) is estimated at $112.64 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $38.12, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes an 11.72% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.96%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$112.64
▲ 195.49% upside
20% margin of safety: $90.11
Years: 10Growth Rate: 11.72%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
6.18%
Cost of Capital (estimated)7%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

84/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
195.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
10.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 6.2% vs WACC 7.0% (0.9x)
44
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
307.1% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
100
Strengths lead the score: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

52/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (31st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 43m ago
Sources: 51 (45 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
33 news sentiment+0.2
6 regulatory scrutiny+0.0
3 legal risk-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
Downgrade headlines-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
BUYConfidence: 74%
Thesis
Instacart (Maplebear Inc.) is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 201% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 10.3% and a net cash balance sheet. The company demonstrates robust growth potential with a bullish fundamental score of 84 and consistent free cash flow CAGR growth.
Key Risk
The negative spread between ROIC and WACC poses a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 89.28%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): 313.99%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019
$1,033$1,033$751$642$303-$182-$84-$475

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Instacart (Maplebear Inc.)Consumer Cyclical

Maplebear Inc., doing business as Instacart, provides online grocery shopping services to households in North America. The company connects the consumer with a personal shopper to shop and deliver a range of products, such as food, alcohol, consumer health, pet care, ready-made meals, and others. The company offers its services through a mobile application or website. The company was incorporated in 2012 and is based in San Francisco, California.