Market Pulse50Neutral

Carrier Global CorporationOpportunity Rank #270(CARR) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$58.30

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$58.30
Price
$32.07
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 45%MOS: $25.66

Fundamental Score

36/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

54/100
Weak

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is estimated at $32.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $58.30, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.56% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Carrier Global Corporation (CARR) is estimated at $32.07 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $58.30, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 0.56% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 8.49%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$32.07
-44.99% downside
20% margin of safety: $25.66
Years: 10Growth Rate: 0.56%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
0.73%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

36/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
45.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
5.9% trailing FCF yield
98
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 0.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.1x)
4
Net Debt / FCF
3.7x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
7.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
63
Strengths: FCF Yield, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

54/100
Weak
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (48th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 85%Updated: 50m ago
Sources: 41 (34 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
22 news sentiment+0.3
10 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
Margin pressure-0.0
Earnings beat-0.0
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Carrier Global Corporation is significantly overvalued with its current price nearly 49% above estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a healthy free cash flow yield. The company's financial metrics indicate bearish conditions and a negative spread between ROIC and WACC, suggesting limited upside potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, which could continue to pressure valuation and shareholder returns.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in narrative trend and score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 0.56%5 Year CAGR: 2.20%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM202520242023202220212020201920182017
$2,878$2,481$1,082$3,046$2,060$2,581$2,004$2,306$2,318$2,424

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Carrier Global Corporation's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Carrier Global CorporationIndustrials

Carrier Global Corporation provides heating, ventilating, and air conditioning (HVAC), refrigeration, fire, security, and building automation technologies worldwide. It operates through three segments: HVAC, Refrigeration, and Fire & Security. The HVAC segment provides products, controls, services, and solutions to meet the heating, cooling, and ventilation needs of residential and commercial customers. Its products include air conditioners, heating systems, controls, and aftermarket components, as well as aftermarket repair and maintenance services and building automation solutions. The Refrigeration segment offers transport refrigeration and monitoring products and services, as well as digital solutions for trucks, trailers, shipping containers, intermodal applications, food retail, and warehouse cooling; and commercial refrigeration solutions, such as refrigerated cabinets, freezers, systems, and controls. The Fire & Security segment provides various residential, commercial, and industrial technologies, including fire, flame, gas, smoke, and carbon monoxide detection; portable fire extinguishers; fire suppression systems; intruder alarms; access control systems; video management systems; and electronic controls. Its other fire and security service offerings comprise audit, design, installation, and system integration, as well as aftermarket maintenance and repair and monitoring services. The company offers its products under the Autronica, Det-Tronics, Edwards, Fireye, GST, Kidde, LenelS2, Marioff, Onity, and Supra; Carrier, Automated Logic, Bryant, CIAT, Day & Night, Heil, NORESCO, and Riello; and Carrier Commercial Refrigeration, Carrier Transicold, and Sensitech brands. The company was incorporated in 2019 and is headquartered in Palm Beach Gardens, Florida.