Market Pulse59Neutral

CACI International IncOpportunity Rank #286(CACI) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Technology

Current Price

$489.88

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$489.88
Price
$338.49
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 31%MOS: $270.79

Fundamental Score

26/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

Trend Score

12/100
Weak

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of CACI International Inc (CACI) is estimated at $338.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $489.88, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.41%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of CACI International Inc (CACI) is estimated at $338.49 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $489.88, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.98% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 6.41%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$338.49
▼ -30.90% downside
20% margin of safety: $270.79
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.98%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.4%
Cost of Capital (estimated)9%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

26/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
30.9% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
6.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.4% vs WACC 9.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
7.1x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
3.5% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: FCF Yield. Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
-1 vs previousVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (54th pct)Weighted across 4 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 86%Updated: 16h ago
Sources: 39 (35 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
26 news sentiment+0.9
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Earnings beat+0.1
4 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

12/100
WeakAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-29.0%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-27.1%
Price vs 50 EMA-11.7%
Price vs 21 EMA14 · -7.0%
Price vs 50 EMA8 · -11.7%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA15 · -5.1%
3M RS vs SPY1 · -29.0%
6M RS vs SPY5 · -27.1%
Distance from 52W High45 · -27.4%

Investment Coach

Updated 21h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 85%
Thesis
CACI International Inc is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 27.5% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital. The company's elevated leverage at 7.1x net debt to free cash flow further undermines its financial stability.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating persistent value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative trend or fundamental score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.98%5 Year CAGR: 1.11%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$703$613$561$452$820$665$591$603$367$325$263$241$214$265$285$240$232$190$174$176$117

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates CACI International Inc's intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

CACI International IncTechnology

CACI International Inc, together with its subsidiaries, provides expertise and technology to enterprise and mission customers in support of national security missions and government modernization/transformation in the intelligence, defense, and federal civilian sectors. It operates in two segments, Domestic Operations and International Operations. The Domestic Operations segment offers information solutions and services to the U.S. federal government agencies and commercial enterprises in the areas, such as digital solutions, C4ISR, cyber and space, engineering services, enterprise IT, and mission support. The International Operations segment provides a range of IT services, proprietary data, and software products to the commercial and government customers in the United Kingdom, continental Europe, and internationally. The company designs, implements, protects, and manages secure enterprise IT solutions. It also offers software-defined, full-spectrum cyber, electronic warfare, and counter-unmanned aircraft system solutions; and platform integration and modernization and sustainment, as well as system engineering, naval architecture, training and simulation, and logistics engineering. In addition, the company provides enterprise cloud solutions for classified and unclassified networks; and intelligence support that ensures continuous advances in collection, analysis, and dissemination to optimize decision-making. CACI International Inc was founded in 1962 and is headquartered in Reston, Virginia.