Market Pulse59Neutral

Citigroup Inc.Opportunity Rank #58(C) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$129.10

Last updated: May 08, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$129.10
Price
-$414.43
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 421%MOS: -$331.54

Fundamental Score

19/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

80/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

62/100
Constructive

As of 2026-05-08

The intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc. (C) is estimated at $-414.43 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -80.44% long-term growth rate and a 10.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc. (C) is estimated at $-414.43 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $129.10, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -80.44% long-term growth rate and a 10.71% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$414.43
▼ -421.03% downside
20% margin of safety: -$331.54
Years: 10Growth Rate: -80.44%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.04%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

19/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
421.0% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-21.6% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
5
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-87.2% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

80/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:High (81st pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 15h ago
Sources: 166 (150 News · 16 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
106 news sentiment+3.1
34 regulatory scrutiny+1.4
5 earnings beat+0.3
2 downgrade headlines-0.1
2 upgrade headlines+0.0
Restructuring+0.0

Trend Details

62/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-05-08311 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-5.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+14.6%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.7%
Price vs 21 EMA46 · -0.6%
Price vs 50 EMA65 · +3.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA77 · +3.7%
3M RS vs SPY32 · -4.5%
6M RS vs SPY84 · +14.6%
Distance from 52W High89 · -5.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 1d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Citigroup Inc. is currently overvalued by an estimated 420% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, despite a strong and stable narrative score. The company's financial metrics indicate significant challenges, including negative free cash flow growth and a substantial negative spread between ROIC and WACC.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Citigroup's poor fundamental performance and negative ROIC minus WACC spread may persist or worsen, further eroding shareholder value.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -80.44%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -90.00%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$48,684$35,323-$13,169-$66,833$30,701$51,209-$20,042-$7,501$40,726-$5,413$56,688$42,935$49,729$66,734-$6,758$68,243$38,049-$52,346$101,466-$67,548$3,870

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Citigroup Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Citigroup Inc.Financial Services

Citigroup Inc., a diversified financial services holding company, provides various financial products and services to consumers, corporations, governments, and institutions in North America, Latin America, Asia, Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. The company operates in two segments, Global Consumer Banking (GCB) and Institutional Clients Group (ICG). The GCB segment offers traditional banking services to retail customers through retail banking, Citi-branded cards, and Citi retail services. It also provides various banking, credit card, lending, and investment services through a network of local branches, offices, and electronic delivery systems. The ICG segment offers wholesale banking products and services, including fixed income and equity sales and trading, foreign exchange, prime brokerage, derivative, equity and fixed income research, corporate lending, investment banking and advisory, private banking, cash management, trade finance, and securities services to corporate, institutional, public sector, and high-net-worth clients. As of December 31, 2020, it operated 2,303 branches primarily in the United States, Mexico, and Asia. Citigroup Inc. was founded in 1812 and is headquartered in New York, New York.