Market Pulse57Neutral

Citigroup Inc.Opportunity Rank #264(C) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$133.27

Last updated: Jul 15, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$133.27
Price
-$23.63
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 118%MOS: -$18.90

Fundamental Score

20/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

79/100
Strong

No change vs previous

Trend Score

50/100
Neutral

As of 2026-07-14

The intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc. (C) is estimated at $-23.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $133.27, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -81.93% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 16.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Citigroup Inc. (C) is estimated at $-23.63 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $133.27, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -81.93% long-term growth rate and a 12.00% discount rate (calculated: 16.52%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

-$23.63
-117.73% downside
20% margin of safety: -$18.90
Years: 10Growth Rate: -81.93%
Want to create your own valuation? Create a free account.

Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
1.38%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

20/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
117.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
-10.7% trailing FCF yield
0
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 1.4% vs WACC 11.0% (0.1x)
6
Net Debt / FCF
Net cash position
100
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
-81.3% 5Y FCF CAGR (adjusted)
0
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF, Buybacks. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

79/100
Strong
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Average (55th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 14h ago
Sources: 164 (153 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
107 news sentiment+4.0
5 earnings beat+2.6
28 regulatory scrutiny+2.4
4 restructuring+0.2
3 downgrade headlines+0.2
Analyst downgrades-0.1

Trend Details

50/100
NeutralAs of 2026-07-14309 daily bars used
Distance from 52-Week High-8.5%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA+3.3%
Price vs 21 EMA-4.1%
Price vs 21 EMA26 · -4.1%
Price vs 50 EMA45 · -1.0%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA75 · +3.3%
3M RS vs SPY34 · -4.0%
6M RS vs SPY54 · +1.6%
Distance from 52W High83 · -8.5%

Investment Coach

Updating... 34d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 78%
Thesis
Citigroup Inc. is currently overvalued by an estimated 412% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital despite a supportive and stable narrative score. The company exhibits poor free cash flow growth and a significant negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating financial underperformance.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that Citigroup's fundamental weaknesses persist or worsen, preventing any meaningful recovery in valuation or operational performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR (Adjusted): -81.93%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -89.42%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
-$24,379-$61,112-$13,169-$66,833$30,701$51,209-$20,042-$7,501$40,726-$5,413$56,688$42,935$49,729$66,734-$6,758$68,243$38,049-$52,346$101,466-$67,548$3,870

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Citigroup Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Citigroup Inc.Financial Services

Citigroup, Inc. is a holding company, which engages in the provision of financial products and services. It operates through the following segments: Services, Markets, Banking, Wealth, U.S. Personal Banking (USPB), and All Other. The Services segment includes Treasury and Trade Solutions (TTS) which provides an integrated suite of tailored cash management, trade, and working capital solutions to multinational corporations, financial institutions and public sector organizations, and Securities Services, which offers cross-border support for clients, providing on-the-ground local market expertise, post-trade technologies, customized data solutions, and a wide range of securities services solutions that can be tailored to meet client needs. The Markets segment provides corporate, institutional, and public sector clients around the world with a full range of sales and trading services across equities, foreign exchange, rates, spread products, and commodities. The Banking segment offers Investment Banking and Corporate Lending services. The Wealth segment includes Private Bank, Wealth at Work, and Citigold and provides financial services to a range of client segments through banking, lending, mortgages, investment, custody, and trust product offerings. The USPB segment includes Branded Cards and Retail Services, which have proprietary card portfolios and co-branded card portfolios within Branded Cards, and co-brand and private label relationships within Retail Services. The All Other segment consists of activities not assigned to the reportable operating segments, including certain unallocated costs of global functions, other corporate expenses, and net treasury results. The company was founded in 1812 and is headquartered in New York, NY.