Market Pulse50Neutral

Blackstone Inc.Opportunity Rank #265(BX) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$109.36

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$109.36
Price
$64.35
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 41%MOS: $51.48

Fundamental Score

38/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

60/100
Improving

-1 vs previous

The intrinsic value of Blackstone Inc. (BX) is estimated at $64.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.36, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.80% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of Blackstone Inc. (BX) is estimated at $64.35 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $109.36, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 7.61% long-term growth rate and a 10.80% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$64.35
-41.15% downside
20% margin of safety: $51.48
Years: 10Growth Rate: 7.61%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
7.96%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

38/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
41.2% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.8% trailing FCF yield
21
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 8.0% vs WACC 11.0% (0.7x)
36
Net Debt / FCF
2.8x net debt to FCF
5
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
12.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
88
Strengths: Buybacks, FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

60/100
Improving
-1 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Low (0th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 125 (114 News · 11 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
92 news sentiment+0.6
17 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
Upgrade headlines+0.1
4 earnings beat+0.0
11 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 21h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
Blackstone Inc. is currently overvalued by approximately 36.6% with weak fundamentals and returns trailing its cost of capital, indicating limited upside potential. The deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score suggest caution in investment at current levels.
Key Risk
Continued underperformance relative to the cost of capital and worsening fundamentals could further depress the stock price.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 7.61%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.90%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$3,708$1,976$3,543$4,281$6,572$4,050$2,048$2,023$64-$2,424-$67$2,456$1,685$3,574$620$1,136-$318$435$1,941-$818-$4,372

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates Blackstone Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

Blackstone Inc.Financial Services

Blackstone Inc. is an alternative asset management firm specializing in real estate, private equity, hedge fund solutions, credit, secondary funds of funds, public debt and equity and multi-asset class strategies. The firm typically invests in early-stage companies. It also provide capital markets services. The real estate segment specializes in opportunistic, core+ investments as well as debt investment opportunities collateralized by commercial real estate, and stabilized income-oriented commercial real estate across North America, Europe and Asia. The firm's corporate private equity business pursues transactions throughout the world across a variety of transaction types, including large buyouts,special situations, distressed mortgage loans, mid-cap buyouts, buy and build platforms, which involves multiple acquisitions behind a single management team and platform, and growth equity/development projects involving significant majority stakes in portfolio companies and minority investments in operating companies, shipping, real estate, corporate or consumer loans, and alternative energy greenfield development projects in energy and power, property, dislocated markets, shipping opportunities, financial institution breakups, re-insurance, and improving freight mobility, financial services, healthcare, life sciences, enterprise tech and consumer, as well as consumer technologies. The firm considers investment in Asia and Latin America. It has a three year investment period. Its hedge fund business manages a broad range of commingled and customized fund solutions and its credit business focuses on loans, and securities of non-investment grade companies spread across the capital structure including senior debt, subordinated debt, preferred stock and common equity. Blackstone Inc. was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in New York, New York with additional offices across Asia, Europe and North America.