Market Pulse50Neutral

BWX Technologies, Inc.Opportunity Rank #271(BWXT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$204.85

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$204.85
Price
$100.20
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 51%MOS: $80.16

Fundamental Score

28/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

-4 vs previous

The intrinsic value of BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is estimated at $100.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $204.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.55% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.78%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is estimated at $100.20 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $204.85, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.55% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.78%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$100.20
-51.09% downside
20% margin of safety: $80.16
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.55%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.54%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

28/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
51.1% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.5% trailing FCF yield
39
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.5% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
2.3x net debt to FCF
21
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
8.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
65
Pressure from: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
-4 vs previous · +1 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:High (87th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 89%Updated: 1h ago
Sources: 59 (57 News · 2 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
37 news sentiment+1.4
15 regulatory scrutiny+0.7
Downgrade headlines-0.4
Upgrade headlines+0.4
3 earnings beat+0.0
Analyst downgrades-0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
BWX Technologies, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 51% above the estimated fair value, supported by a strong narrative score despite weak fundamentals. The company exhibits poor returns relative to its cost of capital, indicating potential challenges in generating shareholder value.
Key Risk
The primary risk is the company's returns continuing to trail its estimated cost of capital, which could further depress valuation and investor confidence.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.55%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -0.48%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$664$664$562$515$443$697$451$461$279$319$292$398$152$205$272$237$256$347$123$664

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates BWX Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

BWX Technologies, Inc.Industrials

BWX Technologies, Inc. manufactures and sells nuclear components in the United States, Canada, and internationally. It operates in three segments: Nuclear Operations Group, Nuclear Power Group, and Nuclear Services Group. The Nuclear Operations Group segment provides precision naval and critical nuclear components, reactors, nuclear fuel, and assemblies for the United States Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program and other uses; missile launch tubes for United States Navy submarines; close-tolerance and equipment for nuclear applications; and converts Cold War-era government stockpiles of high-enriched uranium, as well as receives, stores, characterizes, dissolves, recovers, and purifies uranium-bearing materials; supplies research reactor fuel elements for colleges, universities, and national laboratories; and components for defense applications. The Nuclear Power Group segment offers commercial nuclear steam generators, nuclear fuel, fuel handling systems, pressure vessels, reactor components, heat exchangers, tooling delivery systems, and containers; engineering and in-plant services for nuclear power plants; designs, manufactures, commissions, and services nuclear power generation equipment; in-plant inspection, maintenance, and modification services, as well as non-destructive examination and tooling/repair solutions; and supplies medical radioisotopes and radiopharmaceuticals for research, diagnostic, and therapeutic uses. The Nuclear Services Group segment provides nuclear materials processing, environmental site restoration, and management and operating services; develops technology for nuclear power sources application; and designs, engineers, licenses, and manufactures nuclear reactors. The company was formerly known as The Babcock & Wilcox Company and changed its name to BWX Technologies, Inc. in June 2015. BWX Technologies, Inc. was founded in 1867 and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia.