Market Pulse44Neutral

BWX Technologies, Inc.Opportunity Rank #274(BWXT) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$210.00

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$210.00
Price
$110.10
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 48%MOS: $88.08

Fundamental Score

31/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

61/100
Improving

+1 vs previous

Trend Score

57/100
Constructive

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is estimated at $110.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $210.00, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.64% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of BWX Technologies, Inc. (BWXT) is estimated at $110.10 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $210.00, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 3.64% long-term growth rate and a 9.00% discount rate (calculated: 7.58%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$110.10
-47.57% downside
20% margin of safety: $88.08
Years: 10Growth Rate: 3.64%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.48%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

31/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
47.6% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
3.7% trailing FCF yield
43
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.5% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
17
Net Debt / FCF
2.1x net debt to FCF
27
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
73
Strengths: FCF CAGR (5Y). Concerns: DCF Discount, ROIC vs WACC.

Narrative Details

61/100
Improving
+1 vs previous · +2 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (40th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 87%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 57 (54 News · 3 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
39 news sentiment+0.6
14 regulatory scrutiny+0.3
2 analyst upgrades+0.2
Earnings beat+0.0
Analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

57/100
ConstructiveAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY-9.6%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY+14.0%
Price vs 21 EMA+6.0%
Price vs 21 EMA81 · +6.0%
Price vs 50 EMA68 · +3.9%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA34 · -2.0%
3M RS vs SPY17 · -9.6%
6M RS vs SPY83 · +14.0%
Distance from 52W High76 · -11.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
AVOIDConfidence: 83%
Thesis
BWX Technologies, Inc. is currently overvalued with its market price approximately 40% above the estimated fair value, supported by weak fundamentals and returns that lag the cost of capital. The company's deteriorating narrative and bearish fundamental score suggest limited near-term upside potential.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that BWXT's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, undermining value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moves to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value.
  • Sustained improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread.
  • Meaningful positive shifts in the narrative trend and fundamental score.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 3.64%5 Year CAGR: 0.52%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM2025202420232022202120202019201820172016201520142013201220112010200920082007
$715$664$562$515$443$697$451$461$279$319$292$398$152$205$272$237$256$347$123$664

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates BWX Technologies, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

BWX Technologies, Inc.Industrials

BWX Technologies, Inc. operates globally, specializing in the production and sale of nuclear components across the United States, Canada, and other international regions. The company's multifaceted operations are categorized into three distinct segments: Nuclear Operations Group, Nuclear Power Group, and Nuclear Services Group. The Nuclear Operations Group is a pivotal supplier of precision naval and critical nuclear components, including reactors, nuclear fuel, and assemblies, primarily supporting the United States Department of Energy/National Nuclear Security Administration's Naval Nuclear Propulsion Program. This segment also fabricates missile launch tubes for U.S. Navy submarines, produces specialized close-tolerance equipment for various nuclear applications, and is involved in converting Cold War-era stockpiles of high-enriched uranium. Its responsibilities further extend to the receiving, storage, characterization, dissolution, recovery, and purification of uranium-bearing materials, alongside providing research reactor fuel elements for academic and national laboratories, and other defense-related components. The Nuclear Power Group caters to the commercial nuclear sector, offering a comprehensive range of products such as nuclear steam generators, fuel, fuel handling systems, pressure vessels, reactor components, heat exchangers, tooling delivery systems, and specialized containers. This group provides engineering and in-plant services for nuclear power facilities, overseeing the design, manufacturing, commissioning, and servicing of nuclear power generation equipment. It also delivers essential in-plant inspection, maintenance, and modification services, non-destructive examination, and tooling/repair solutions. Moreover, it is a key provider of medical radioisotopes and radiopharmaceuticals for research, diagnostic, and therapeutic applications. Finally, the Nuclear Services Group focuses on critical support functions, encompassing nuclear materials processing, environmental site remediation, and comprehensive management and operating services. This segment is also dedicated to advancing technology for nuclear power sources and plays a role in the design, engineering, licensing, and manufacturing of nuclear reactors. Founded in 1867 as The Babcock & Wilcox Company, the corporation adopted its current name, BWX Technologies, Inc., in June 2015, and is headquartered in Lynchburg, Virginia.