Market Pulse47Neutral

BP p.l.c.(BP) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Energy

Current Price

$39.20

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$39.20
Price
$175.28
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 347%MOS: $140.22

Fundamental Score

64/100
Neutral

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

62/100
Improving

-2 vs previous

Trend Score

0/100
Unavailable

Trend data unavailable

The intrinsic value of BP p.l.c. (BP) is estimated at $175.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.93% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of BP p.l.c. (BP) is estimated at $175.28 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $39.20, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a -0.93% long-term growth rate and an 8.50% discount rate (calculated: 7.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$175.28
▲ 347.14% upside
20% margin of safety: $140.22
Years: 10Growth Rate: -0.93%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.93%
Cost of Capital (estimated)11%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

64/100
NeutralWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
347.1% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
36.5% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.9% vs WACC 11.0% (0.3x)
13
Net Debt / FCF
0.6x net debt to FCF
87
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
9.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
70
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Buybacks.

Narrative Details

62/100
Improving
-2 vs previous · +2 new driversWeighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 87%Updated: 3h ago
Sources: 131 (127 News · 4 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
108 news sentiment+1.1
8 regulatory scrutiny+0.1
8 legal risk-0.0
Upgrade headlines+0.0
3 analyst upgrades+0.0
2 restructuring+0.0

Trend Details

0/100
NeutralRules-based daily model
Trend score unavailable for this ticker right now.

Investment Coach

Updating... 4d ago
BUYConfidence: 49%
Thesis
BP is significantly undervalued with an estimated fair value 347% above its current price, supported by healthy free cash flow yield and constructive fundamentals. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's strong free cash flow growth and valuation discount present a compelling buy opportunity.
Key Risk
BP's return on invested capital remains well below its weighted average cost of capital, posing a risk to sustained value creation.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Narrative signal is missing; monitor for fresh sentiment coverage.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: -0.93%5 Year CAGR: 1.72%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$37,574$37,802$42,594$46,324$53,001$34,499$24,468$41,188$39,580$35,493$27,392$37,781$55,300$45,620$43,475$39,999$32,037$48,366$60,569$42,174$43,344

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates BP p.l.c.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

BP p.l.c.Energy

BP p.l.c. operates as a global energy company, offering a wide array of carbon-based and sustainable products and services. Its operations are structured across three primary segments: Gas & Low Carbon Energy, Oil Production & Operations, and Customers & Products. The Gas & Low Carbon Energy division is responsible for the extraction and integrated generation of natural gas and power. It actively trades gas and both renewable and non-renewable electricity. This segment also manages onshore and offshore wind farms and develops innovative solutions like hydrogen production and carbon capture and storage facilities. Meanwhile, the Oil Production & Operations segment focuses on crude oil extraction. The Customers & Products arm encompasses a diverse portfolio, including convenience stores and retail fuel sales, electric vehicle charging infrastructure, and the Castrol lubricants brand. It extends its reach to aviation and business-to-business (B2B) services, alongside midstream operations (like transportation and storage), refining activities, oil trading, and the expanding bioenergy sector. Established in 1908, BP maintains its headquarters in London, United Kingdom.