Market Pulse50Neutral

BlackRock, Inc.Opportunity Rank #269(BLK) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Current Price

$974.58

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$974.58
Price
$363.56
Intrinsic Value
Overvalued by 63%MOS: $290.85

Fundamental Score

24/100
Bearish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

72/100
Strong

+2 vs previous

The intrinsic value of BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is estimated at $363.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $974.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.14% long-term growth rate and a 10.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of BlackRock, Inc. (BLK) is estimated at $363.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $974.58, the stock appears overvalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 4.14% long-term growth rate and a 10.15% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$363.56
-62.70% downside
20% margin of safety: $290.85
Years: 10Growth Rate: 4.14%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
2.9%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

24/100
BearishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
62.7% premium to price
0
FCF Yield
2.9% trailing FCF yield
22
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 2.9% vs WACC 10.0% (0.3x)
14
Net Debt / FCF
0.4x net debt to FCF
93
Buybacks
Share count growing
30
FCF CAGR (5Y)
2.0% 5Y FCF CAGR
25
Strengths: Net Debt / FCF. Concerns: DCF Discount, FCF Yield.

Narrative Details

72/100
Strong
+2 vs previous · +3 new driversVs 6-Month Baseline:Average (46th pct)Weighted across 6 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 100%Updated: 45m ago
Sources: 208 (200 News · 8 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
112 news sentiment+1.7
58 legal risk+0.5
27 regulatory scrutiny-0.1
Margin pressure+0.0
Analyst upgrades+0.0
Downgrade headlines+0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
AVOIDConfidence: 76%
Thesis
BlackRock, Inc. is significantly overvalued with its current price approximately 61.6% above the estimated fair value, supported by a bearish fundamental score and returns trailing the cost of capital. Despite a somewhat supportive narrative score, the overall outlook is negative due to deteriorating trends and weak fundamentals.
Key Risk
The primary risk is that the company's returns on invested capital remain below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential ongoing value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Price moving to at least a mid-teens discount to fair value
  • Improvement in ROIC versus WACC spread
  • Meaningful shifts in the narrative score direction
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Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 4.14%5 Year CAGR (Adjusted): -2.04%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012201120102009200820072006
$4,341$4,499$5,211$4,509$5,489$5,285$3,937$3,138$3,279$3,983$2,273$3,225$3,147$3,736$2,390$3,073$2,620$1,466$1,993$699$805

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates BlackRock, Inc.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

BlackRock, Inc.Financial Services

BlackRock, Inc. is a publicly owned investment manager. The firm primarily provides its services to institutional, intermediary, and individual investors including corporate, public, union, and industry pension plans, insurance companies, third-party mutual funds, endowments, public institutions, governments, foundations, charities, sovereign wealth funds, corporations, official institutions, and banks. It also provides global risk management and advisory services. The firm manages separate client-focused equity, fixed income, and balanced portfolios. It also launches and manages open-end and closed-end mutual funds, offshore funds, unit trusts, and alternative investment vehicles including structured funds. The firm launches equity, fixed income, balanced, and real estate mutual funds. It also launches equity, fixed income, balanced, currency, commodity, and multi-asset exchange traded funds. The firm also launches and manages hedge funds. It invests in the public equity, fixed income, real estate, currency, commodity, and alternative markets across the globe. The firm primarily invests in growth and value stocks of small-cap, mid-cap, SMID-cap, large-cap, and multi-cap companies. It also invests in dividend-paying equity securities. The firm invests in investment grade municipal securities, government securities including securities issued or guaranteed by a government or a government agency or instrumentality, corporate bonds, and asset-backed and mortgage-backed securities. It employs fundamental and quantitative analysis with a focus on bottom-up and top-down approach to make its investments. The firm employs liquidity, asset allocation, balanced, real estate, and alternative strategies to make its investments. In real estate sector, it seeks to invest in Poland and Germany. The firm benchmarks the performance of its portfolios against various S&P, Russell, Barclays, MSCI, Citigroup, and Merrill Lynch indices. BlackRock, Inc. was founded in 1988 and is based in New York City with additional offices in Boston, Massachusetts; London, United Kingdom; Gurgaon, India; Hong Kong; Greenwich, Connecticut; Princeton, New Jersey; Edinburgh, United Kingdom; Sydney, Australia; Taipei, Taiwan; Singapore; Sao Paulo, Brazil; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania; Washington, District of Columbia; Toronto, Canada; Wilmington, Delaware; and San Francisco, California.