Market Pulse50Neutral

TopBuild Corp.Opportunity Rank #117(BLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$346.99

Last updated: Mar 24, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$346.99
Price
$558.08
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 61%MOS: $446.46

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

51/100
Weak

No change vs previous

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $558.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $346.99, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.82% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.48%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $558.08 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $346.99, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.82% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.48%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$558.08
60.83% upside
20% margin of safety: $446.46
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.82%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
4.05%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
60.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.4% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 4.1% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
20
Net Debt / FCF
3.4x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.4% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

51/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: Deteriorating downConfidence: 80%Updated: 48m ago
Sources: 33 (26 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
16 news sentiment+0.3
7 regulatory scrutiny-0.2
2 earnings beat+0.1
Earnings miss-0.1
7 analyst reiterations0.0

Investment Coach

Updated 12h ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
TopBuild Corp. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 86% above the current price and strong fundamentals including a healthy free cash flow yield of 8.4%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company shows constructive fundamentals and consistent free cash flow growth.
Key Risk
The company's return on invested capital remains below its weighted average cost of capital, indicating potential value destruction.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.82%5 Year CAGR: 12.21%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$816$816$845$913$572$459$399$317$220$139$91$70$85$39-$91

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TopBuild Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TopBuild Corp.Industrials

TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, afterpaint products, fireproofing products, garage doors, fireplaces, closet shelving, roofing materials, and other products; and insulation installation services. The company also offers various services and tools to assist builders in applying the principles of building science to new home construction, which include pre-construction plan reviews, diagnostic testing, and various inspection services; and home energy rating services. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial general contractors, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates approximately 235 installation branches and 175 distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq