Market Pulse63Bullish

TopBuild Corp.Opportunity Rank #159(BLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$354.53

Last updated: Jul 13, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$354.53
Price
$569.12
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 61%MOS: $455.30

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

14/100
Weak

As of 2026-07-10

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $569.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $354.53, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.83% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $569.12 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $354.53, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.83% long-term growth rate and a 10.00% discount rate (calculated: 9.94%), reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$569.12
60.53% upside
20% margin of safety: $455.30
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.83%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.66%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
60.5% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
8.3% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
3.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (26th pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 68%Updated: 2d ago
Sources: 23 (17 News · 6 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
12 news sentiment-0.0
2 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
3 analyst downgrades-0.0
3 legal risk+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

14/100
WeakAs of 2026-07-10305 daily bars used
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-24.5%
Price vs 50 EMA-12.2%
Price vs 21 EMA-9.6%
Price vs 21 EMA7 · -9.6%
Price vs 50 EMA7 · -12.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA27 · -2.9%
3M RS vs SPY12 · -11.7%
6M RS vs SPY6 · -24.5%
Distance from 52W High29 · -35.6%

Investment Coach

Updating... 32d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
TopBuild Corp. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 57.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and buyback activity suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which may pressure valuation and performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.83%5 Year CAGR: 12.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$825$816$845$913$572$459$399$317$220$139$91$70$85$39-$91

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TopBuild Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TopBuild Corp.Industrials

TopBuild Corp., together with its subsidiaries, engages in the installation and distribution of insulation and other building material products to the construction industry. The company operates in two segments, Installation and Specialty Distribution. It provides insulation products and accessories, glass and windows, rain gutters, garage doors, fireplaces, roofing materials, closet shelving, and other products. The company also offers insulation installation services for fiberglass batts and rolls, blown-in loose fill fiberglass, polyurethane spray foam, and blown-in loose fill cellulose applications; provides roofing installation services, re-roofing and maintenance for the commercial and industrial end markets including single ply roofing, built-up roofing systems, and metal roofing systems. In addition, it distributes building and mechanical insulation, insulation accessories, and other building product materials for the residential, commercial, and industrial end markets. The company serves single-family homebuilders, single-family custom builders, multi-family builders, commercial and industrial general contractors, school districts, municipalities, remodelers, and individual homeowners, as well as insulation contractors, gutter contractors, weatherization contractors, other contractors, dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home builders. It operates installation branches and distribution centers in the United States and Canada. The company was formerly known as Masco SpinCo Corp. and changed its name to TopBuild Corp. in March 2015. TopBuild Corp. was incorporated in 2015 and is headquartered in Daytona Beach, Florida.

TopBuild Corp. (BLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF (2026) | Intrinziq