Market Pulse44Neutral

TopBuild Corp.Opportunity Rank #73(BLD) Intrinsic Value & DCF Analysis (2026)

Sector: Industrials

Current Price

$413.47

Last updated: Jun 23, 2026

Price vs Intrinsic Value

$413.47
Price
$561.56
Intrinsic Value
Undervalued by 36%MOS: $449.25

Fundamental Score

68/100
Bullish

Weighted across 6 signals

Narrative Score

50/100
Weak

No change vs previous

Trend Score

51/100
Neutral

As of 2026-06-22

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $561.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $413.47, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.83% long-term growth rate and a 10.08% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

The intrinsic value of TopBuild Corp. (BLD) is estimated at $561.56 per share based on a 10-year discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis. At the current price of $413.47, the stock appears undervalued relative to its projected cash flow fundamentals. This estimate assumes a 10.83% long-term growth rate and a 10.08% discount rate, reflecting expected future free cash flow and cost of capital.

Valuation Details

$561.56
35.82% upside
20% margin of safety: $449.25
Years: 10Growth Rate: 10.83%
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Capital Efficiency

Average Quarterly ROIC
3.66%
Cost of Capital (estimated)10%
Value StatusUnderperforming Capital

The company is earning below its required return. This may indicate inefficient use of capital or excess cash that isn't being reinvested.

Complete historical ROIC is available with
.

Fundamental Details

68/100
BullishWeighted across 6 signals
DCF Discount
35.8% discount to price
100
FCF Yield
7.1% trailing FCF yield
100
ROIC vs WACC
ROIC 3.7% vs WACC 10.0% (0.4x)
18
Net Debt / FCF
3.2x net debt to FCF
0
Buybacks
Share count shrinking
80
FCF CAGR (5Y)
15.6% 5Y FCF CAGR
100
Strengths: DCF Discount, FCF Yield. Concerns: ROIC vs WACC, Net Debt / FCF.

Narrative Details

50/100
Weak
Vs 6-Month Baseline:Below Avg (21st pct)Weighted across 5 recent drivers
Trend: StableConfidence: 73%Updated: 44m ago
Sources: 28 (21 News · 7 Analyst)
Drivers(last 30 days)
3 regulatory scrutiny-0.0
4 analyst downgrades-0.0
14 news sentiment-0.0
4 legal risk+0.0
3 analyst reiterations0.0

Trend Details

51/100
NeutralAs of 2026-06-22308 daily bars used
3M Relative Strength vs SPY+8.5%
6M Relative Strength vs SPY-12.2%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA-0.4%
Price vs 21 EMA52 · +0.3%
Price vs 50 EMA49 · -0.1%
21 EMA vs 50 EMA46 · -0.4%
3M RS vs SPY80 · +8.5%
6M RS vs SPY21 · -12.2%
Distance from 52W High50 · -24.9%

Investment Coach

Updating... 12d ago
BUYConfidence: 54%
Thesis
TopBuild Corp. is undervalued with an estimated fair value 57.9% above its current price, supported by strong fundamentals and a healthy free cash flow yield of 7.5%. Despite trailing returns relative to its cost of capital, the company's constructive fundamentals and buyback activity suggest potential for value realization.
Key Risk
The key risk is the negative spread between ROIC and WACC, indicating returns are currently below the cost of capital, which may pressure valuation and performance.
Signals To Watch
  • Monitor whether valuation discount remains above 10%.
  • Track ROIC vs WACC spread for sustained improvement.
  • Follow narrative trend for meaningful shifts in the score direction.
Ask the Coach - Available with
Historical Growth Rates
Free Cash Flow- - -Trend CAGR: 10.83%5 Year CAGR: 12.45%

Free Cash Flow (in millions)

TTM20252024202320222021202020192018201720162015201420132012
$825$816$845$913$572$459$399$317$220$139$91$70$85$39-$91

How Intrinziq Estimates Fair Value

Intrinziq estimates TopBuild Corp.'s intrinsic value using a discounted cash flow (DCF) model based on free cash flow trends and a market-based discount rate. The model projects future cash flows over ten years and discounts them using a market return assumption to estimate fair value.

TopBuild Corp.Industrials

TopBuild Corp., operating under the ticker BLD, specializes in both installing and distributing insulation alongside a diverse range of other construction materials for the building sector. The company primarily functions through two distinct divisions: Installation and Specialty Distribution. Its comprehensive product and service portfolio encompasses a wide array of offerings, such as insulation and its related accessories, glass and window units, rain gutters, afterpaint products, fireproofing solutions, garage doors, fireplaces, closet shelving, and roofing supplies, among others. Additionally, TopBuild provides expert insulation fitting services. Beyond material supply and installation, the firm offers a suite of specialized services and tools. These are designed to assist builders in integrating sound building science principles into new residential construction projects, including pre-construction plan assessments, diagnostic performance testing, various inspection types, and detailed home energy rating certifications. The Specialty Distribution segment further focuses on supplying a broad spectrum of building and mechanical insulation, related accessories, and diverse construction materials to residential, commercial, and industrial end-markets. TopBuild's extensive client base includes single-family and multi-family homebuilders, custom home constructors, commercial general contractors, renovation specialists, and individual homeowners. It also serves various specialized contractors (e.g., insulation, gutter, weatherization), general contractors, material dealers, metal building erectors, and modular home manufacturers. The company maintains a significant operational footprint, with approximately 235 installation branches and around 175 distribution centers spread across the United States and Canada. Established in 2015, TopBuild Corp. was previously known as Masco SpinCo Corp. before adopting its current name in March of that year. Its corporate headquarters are situated in Daytona Beach, Florida.